Arkansas vs Hawaii Prediction & Matchup Analysis

SEC

Arkansas

4West

Round of 64West Region

Big West

13West

Review the projected final score, expected total, risk factors, and historical context for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Arkansas 86–Hawaii 70

Final scoreArkansas 86, Hawaii 70

Arkansas owns the clear resume and efficiency edge: No. 4 seed vs. No. 13, NET 15 vs. 101, KenPom 15 vs. 108, and a major offensive gap with Arkansas ranked No. 6 nationally in adjusted offense while Hawaii sits No. 211.
The Razorbacks have much more top-end scoring and shotmaking. player numbers have Arkansas at 89.9 points per game on 50.0% shooting and 38.9% from three, led by Darius Acuff Jr. (22.9 PPG) and Meleek Thomas (15.4 PPG); Hawaii is at 79.6 points, 45.9% from the field, and 31.5% from three.
Arkansas has already proven it can beat tournament-level teams in multiple settings, with Quad 1 wins over Louisville, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Oklahoma. Hawaii's notable-results profile is much thinner, with no Quad 1 wins and a 0-4 Quad 2 mark in the season profile matchup log.
Hawaii's best case is to make this physical on the glass. The Rainbow Warriors rebound well (39.3 per game), carry a solid No. 43 KenPom defense, and just won the Big West title 78-67 over UC San Diego on March 14, but their offense still does not profile well enough to fully capitalize if Arkansas controls first-shot defense.
Injury context tilts toward Arkansas. Karter Knox is only a game-time decision for the Razorbacks, but Hawaii is already missing Aaron Hunkin-Claytor for the season, which removes the team's top assist research and a meaningful secondary guard creator.

Hawaii can shrink the margin if its rebounding and half-court defense keep Arkansas out of transition and force the Razorbacks into a jump-shot-heavy game.
Arkansas has shown some defensive volatility away from home against strong opponents, so a cold shooting night or early foul trouble could turn this into a much tighter second half.
If Hawaii gets an efficient scoring game from Isaac Johnson, Dre Bullock, and Harry Rouhliadeff at the same time, the underdog has enough frontcourt balance to hang around.

NCAA seed-history notes that No. 13 seeds have beaten No. 4 seeds 33 times all-time through 2025, so this seed line is upset-capable even if the favorite usually advances.
Hawaii is one of the programs on that list: the Rainbow Warriors beat No. 4 seed California in 2016 for the program's first NCAA Tournament win.
The broader lesson from the last decade is that 13-seed upsets usually require the favorite to get dragged into a close, uncomfortable game. Arkansas's offensive depth makes that harder than it is against a more one-dimensional 4-seed.

Total points156 projected

Arkansas drives most of the total by itself. The Razorbacks average 89.9 points with elite shot efficiency, multiple ball handlers, and enough frontcourt finishing to score inside or out.
Hawaii's defense is good enough to keep Arkansas slightly below its raw season average. The Rainbow Warriors defend well enough to avoid a pure track meet, and their rebounding can cut down on second-chance avalanche runs.
Hawaii's offense is the bigger cap on the game total. The Rainbow Warriors shoot just 31.5% from three in the season profile, and their thin high-major-tested resume suggests stepping up to Arkansas's athleticism is more likely to suppress scoring than raise it.
Arkansas should still get this game into the mid-80s because Hawaii has not faced many offenses with this level of pace, spacing, and individual shot creation. A projection in the mid-150s balances Arkansas's offense with Hawaii's slower, more defensive route to competitiveness.

If Arkansas turns live-ball stops into transition points early, the total can climb into the 160s quickly even if Hawaii loses comfortably.
If Hawaii shoots materially better from three than its season baseline, that lifts both its upset odds and the total at the same time.
The under path is real too: if Hawaii controls tempo and the game becomes a half-court grind, the total could fall back toward the high 140s.

Recent 13-over-4 upset games have usually stayed in a manageable scoring band for the underdog rather than turning into a shootout, which fits Hawaii's preferred script here.
Hawaii's own 2016 upset of California finished 77-66, a reminder that the Rainbow Warriors' clearest tournament success template is a controlled, defensive game.
Arkansas's stronger favorite script is different: when its offense dictates terms, its best wins often land in a higher-scoring range, which is why the projection still lands in the mid-150s instead of the low 140s.