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First Four • Midwest Region

Howard vs UMBC prediction and matchup analysis

Howard vs UMBC is a First Four game in the Midwest Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The current projected score is UMBC 72, Howard 68. Compare seed, NET rank, KenPom efficiency, injuries, player leaders, and notable wins to evaluate both teams.

First FourMidwest Region

Predictions

Review the projected final score, expected total, risk factors, and historical context for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

UMBC 72–Howard 68
Final scoreUMBC 72, Howard 68

Explanation

  • UMBC holds the edge in NET rank, KenPom overall, and KenPom offensive efficiency, and all three point in the same direction.
  • The Retrievers shoot better from the field (47.1%), from three (36.1%), and from the line (76.2%), which gives them a more consistent offensive floor.
  • Howard's defense generates more steals, blocks, and transition chances, keeping the Bison within striking distance all game.
  • UMBC's disciplined half-court style and low-foul defense limit Howard's best path to easy points: live-ball turnovers and the free-throw line.
  • UMBC's 24-8 record and 8-4 road mark show more reliability in tough environments than Howard's 23-10 and 7-5 road split.

Risk factors

  • Howard's defensive pressure can flip the script if the Bison create a turnover gap. Bryce Harris and Cedric Taylor III are good enough to take over a game.
  • This is a single-elimination game between two 16-seeds, so any hot shooting stretch or foul-trouble swing can override season-long trends.

Historical context

  • First Four games between 16-seeds since 2016 have been decided by an average of 5.4 points, so a tight game is the more normal outcome.
  • Neutral-site tournament games in Dayton tend to favor the more disciplined team because neither side gets a true home-court edge.
Total points140 projected

Explanation

  • A simple midpoint of each team's season scoring and opponent scoring averages lands in the mid-140s, but pace adjustments pull it lower.
  • UMBC has played at a slower, more deliberate tempo by design this season, which limits total possessions.
  • Neutral-site tournament games usually lose a few possessions compared with conference play, trimming the total further.
  • The projection lands at 140 total points, which fits a competitive game that still spends more time in the half court than the raw averages suggest.

Risk factors

  • If the game turns into a free-throw contest rather than a half-court grind, the total can climb above this projection quickly.
  • Howard's transition game can inflate the pace. If UMBC commits live-ball turnovers, the tempo speeds up and the total rises.
  • Conversely, if both defenses lock in, the total could dip below 135 in a true grind-it-out First Four game.

Historical context

  • First Four games between 16-seeds since 2016 have averaged roughly 140 total points, which aligns with this projection.
  • Dayton First Four games have historically run slightly lower-scoring than regular-season averages for the teams involved.

Team Comparison

Compare seeds, NET rankings, KenPom profiles, records, and team production side by side.

Record Statistics

Statistic
Howard
UMBC
Record23-1024-8
ConferenceMEACAmerica East
Road7-58-4
Neutral1-11-1
Home15-415-3
Quad 10-20-2
Quad 21-20-2

Team Statistics

Statistic
Howard
UMBC
Team PPG77.576.2
Team RPG36.635.5
Team APG16.212.2
Team SPG8.75.0
Team BPG3.72.6
FG%45.9%47.1%
3P%34.5%36.1%
FT%73.1%76.2%

Rankings

Statistic
Howard
UMBC
Seed#16#16
NET Rank#203#196
KenPom Rank#207#185
KenPom Adj Off Rank#283#183
KenPom Adj Def Rank#117#192

Notable matchups

Use quadrant results and marquee games to compare how each team performed against NCAA Tournament caliber competition.

Howard

23-10
Notable matchups

Quad 1

0-2
  • L
    Away • NET #1
    56-9311/23/2025
  • L
    NorthwesternAway • NET #65
    60-8012/30/2025
Notable matchups

Quad 2

1-2
  • L
    Home • NET #58
    67-8811/03/2025
  • W
    UNCWAway • NET #96
    67-6612/20/2025
  • L
    YaleHome • NET #68
    81-87*02/09/2026

UMBC

24-8
Notable matchups

Quad 1

0-2
  • L
    DaytonAway • NET #69
    71-7711/08/2025
  • L
    Away • NET #45
    69-9412/21/2025
Notable matchups

Quad 2

0-2
  • L
    George WashingtonAway • NET #91
    52-8911/19/2025
  • L
    GeorgetownAway • NET #90
    81-9012/03/2025

Player Leaders

Review the scorers, rebounders, playmakers, and efficiency leaders most likely to shape this matchup.

Howard

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Cedric Taylor IIIG • GP 22 • MIN 32.5FG 45.4% • 3P 28.0% • FT 80.3%
    17.1PPG
  • 2
    Bryce HarrisG • GP 33 • MIN 32.1FG 48.4% • 3P 37.4% • FT 77.9%
    17.1PPG
  • 3
    Cam GillusG • GP 33 • MIN 32.4FG 43.4% • 3P 37.9% • FT 77.2%
    10.6PPG
  • 4
    Ose OkojieG • GP 33 • MIN 25.4FG 56.6% • 3P 42.9% • FT 62.4%
    10.5PPG
  • 5
    Travelle BrysonF • GP 29 • MIN 18.9FG 46.5% • 3P 22.7% • FT 81.6%
    8.8PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Bryce HarrisG • GP 33 • MIN 32.1FG 48.4% • 3P 37.4% • FT 77.9%
    6.9RPG
  • 2
    Cedric Taylor IIIG • GP 22 • MIN 32.5FG 45.4% • 3P 28.0% • FT 80.3%
    6.7RPG
  • 3
    Cam GillusG • GP 33 • MIN 32.4FG 43.4% • 3P 37.9% • FT 77.2%
    4.3RPG
  • 4
    Ose OkojieG • GP 33 • MIN 25.4FG 56.6% • 3P 42.9% • FT 62.4%
    3.8RPG
  • 5
    Travelle BrysonF • GP 29 • MIN 18.9FG 46.5% • 3P 22.7% • FT 81.6%
    3.4RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Cam GillusG • GP 33 • MIN 32.4FG 43.4% • 3P 37.9% • FT 77.2%
    4.6APG
  • 2
    Cedric Taylor IIIG • GP 22 • MIN 32.5FG 45.4% • 3P 28.0% • FT 80.3%
    3.3APG
  • 3
    Bryce HarrisG • GP 33 • MIN 32.1FG 48.4% • 3P 37.4% • FT 77.9%
    2.5APG
  • 4
    Ose OkojieG • GP 33 • MIN 25.4FG 56.6% • 3P 42.9% • FT 62.4%
    1.7APG
  • 5
    Isaiah BrownG • GP 31 • MIN 10.8FG 36.1% • 3P 43.8% • FT 77.8%
    1.5APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Cam GillusG • GP 33 • MIN 32.4FG 43.4% • 3P 37.9% • FT 77.2%
    1.8SPG
  • 2
    Cedric Taylor IIIG • GP 22 • MIN 32.5FG 45.4% • 3P 28.0% • FT 80.3%
    1.5SPG
  • 3
    Ose OkojieG • GP 33 • MIN 25.4FG 56.6% • 3P 42.9% • FT 62.4%
    1.5SPG
  • 4
    Bryce HarrisG • GP 33 • MIN 32.1FG 48.4% • 3P 37.4% • FT 77.9%
    1.2SPG
  • 5
    Alex CottonG • GP 30 • MIN 26.5FG 36.4% • 3P 37.3% • FT 65.7%
    1.0SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Cedric Taylor IIIG • GP 22 • MIN 32.5FG 45.4% • 3P 28.0% • FT 80.3%
    1.3BPG
  • 2
    Bryce HarrisG • GP 33 • MIN 32.1FG 48.4% • 3P 37.4% • FT 77.9%
    1.1BPG
  • 3
    Ose OkojieG • GP 33 • MIN 25.4FG 56.6% • 3P 42.9% • FT 62.4%
    0.4BPG
  • 4
    Danas KazakeviciusC • GP 32 • MIN 15.3FG 48.0% • 3P 25.0% • FT 79.5%
    0.3BPG
  • 5
    Travelle BrysonF • GP 29 • MIN 18.9FG 46.5% • 3P 22.7% • FT 81.6%
    0.3BPG

UMBC

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Jah'Likai KingG • GP 31 • MIN 32.1FG 41.5% • 3P 31.9% • FT 82.8%
    13.9PPG
  • 2
    DJ Armstrong Jr.G • GP 32 • MIN 32.3FG 46.4% • 3P 42.0% • FT 92.8%
    13.2PPG
  • 3
    Ace ValentineG • GP 31 • MIN 32.5FG 50.6% • 3P 37.6% • FT 77.1%
    12.0PPG
  • 4
    Caden DiggsF • GP 31 • MIN 22.5FG 47.9% • 3P 36.6% • FT 77.0%
    9.8PPG
  • 5
    Josh OdunowoF • GP 29 • MIN 23.1FG 53.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 73.1%
    8.6PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Jose Roberto TanchynF • GP 31 • MIN 19.1FG 47.8% • 3P 35.3% • FT 68.6%
    5.7RPG
  • 2
    Josh OdunowoF • GP 29 • MIN 23.1FG 53.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 73.1%
    5.2RPG
  • 3
    Ace ValentineG • GP 31 • MIN 32.5FG 50.6% • 3P 37.6% • FT 77.1%
    4.1RPG
  • 4
    Riley JacobsF • GP 31 • MIN 15.6FG 48.6% • 3P 0.0% • FT 55.2%
    3.8RPG
  • 5
    Caden DiggsF • GP 31 • MIN 22.5FG 47.9% • 3P 36.6% • FT 77.0%
    3.6RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Ace ValentineG • GP 31 • MIN 32.5FG 50.6% • 3P 37.6% • FT 77.1%
    4.0APG
  • 2
    DJ Armstrong Jr.G • GP 32 • MIN 32.3FG 46.4% • 3P 42.0% • FT 92.8%
    2.1APG
  • 3
    Jah'Likai KingG • GP 31 • MIN 32.1FG 41.5% • 3P 31.9% • FT 82.8%
    1.5APG
  • 4
    Daylon DickersonF • GP 21 • MIN 13.9FG 58.0% • 3P 25.0% • FT 74.5%
    1.3APG
  • 5
    Josh OdunowoF • GP 29 • MIN 23.1FG 53.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 73.1%
    0.9APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Jah'Likai KingG • GP 31 • MIN 32.1FG 41.5% • 3P 31.9% • FT 82.8%
    0.9SPG
  • 2
    Ace ValentineG • GP 31 • MIN 32.5FG 50.6% • 3P 37.6% • FT 77.1%
    0.8SPG
  • 3
    DJ Armstrong Jr.G • GP 32 • MIN 32.3FG 46.4% • 3P 42.0% • FT 92.8%
    0.8SPG
  • 4
    Caden DiggsF • GP 31 • MIN 22.5FG 47.9% • 3P 36.6% • FT 77.0%
    0.6SPG
  • 5
    Jose Roberto TanchynF • GP 31 • MIN 19.1FG 47.8% • 3P 35.3% • FT 68.6%
    0.6SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Riley JacobsF • GP 31 • MIN 15.6FG 48.6% • 3P 0.0% • FT 55.2%
    0.6BPG
  • 2
    Jose Roberto TanchynF • GP 31 • MIN 19.1FG 47.8% • 3P 35.3% • FT 68.6%
    0.5BPG
  • 3
    Caden DiggsF • GP 31 • MIN 22.5FG 47.9% • 3P 36.6% • FT 77.0%
    0.4BPG
  • 4
    Josh OdunowoF • GP 29 • MIN 23.1FG 53.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 73.1%
    0.4BPG
  • 5
    DJ Armstrong Jr.G • GP 32 • MIN 32.3FG 46.4% • 3P 42.0% • FT 92.8%
    0.3BPG

Injury Report

Check player availability and injury-related production impact before evaluating the final matchup edge.

Howard

0 listed

No injuries listed for this team.

UMBC

0 listed

No injuries listed for this team.