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Round of 64 • Midwest Region

Iowa State vs Tennessee State prediction and matchup analysis

Iowa State vs Tennessee State is a Round of 64 game in the Midwest Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The current projected score is Iowa State 80, Tennessee State 60. Compare seed, NET rank, KenPom efficiency, injuries, player leaders, and notable wins to evaluate both teams.

Round of 64Midwest Region

Predictions

Review the projected final score, expected total, risk factors, and historical context for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Iowa State 80–Tennessee State 60
Final scoreIowa State 80, Tennessee State 60

Explanation

  • Iowa State has the clear full-season profile edge: No. 6 NET, No. 6 BPI, No. 6 KenPom, No. 7 Torvik, plus an 8-7 Quad 1 record and a 10-0 Quad 2 record.
  • Tennessee State won the OVC and enters hot, but its resume still shows a major jump in opponent quality here: No. 172 NET, 0-2 in Quad 1, and just 1-0 in Quad 2.
  • The Cyclones bring a more reliable offensive base with 81.8 points per game, 49.0% field-goal shooting, 38.3% from three, and 17.4 assists per game from the season profile season team profile.
  • Iowa State's pressure defense is the main separator. The Cyclones ranked top-10 nationally in turnover margin and turnovers forced per game in NCAA team-stat snapshots, and Tamin Lipsey and Joshua Jefferson anchor one of the better defensive backcourts in the field.
  • The injury picture does not materially close the gap. the season profile March 16 injury snapshot lists only reserve forward Xzavion Mitchell as a game-time decision for Iowa State, while Tennessee State guard Brandon Weston is out, so the matchup still points strongly toward Iowa State's size, efficiency, and defensive disruption over 40 minutes.

Risk factors

  • Tennessee State is not limping in. The Tigers won six straight and closed the OVC tournament title game with a 93-67 win over Morehead State, so the confidence level is real.
  • Iowa State's offense did show some volatility late in the year against Arizona and Texas Tech. If the Cyclones go cold from three, this can stay tighter and lower-scoring than projected.
  • Tennessee State's steal rate gives it an upset path if it turns this into a turnover-heavy transition game instead of a half-court game.

Historical context

  • Through the end of the 2025 first round, No. 2 seeds were 149-11 all-time against No. 15 seeds in the men's NCAA tournament.
  • Iowa State handled a No. 15 seed comfortably in March 2024, beating South Dakota State 82-65 in the Round of 64.
  • The caution flag is obvious, though: Iowa State was also the No. 2 seed that lost 58-57 to Hampton in the 2001 NCAA tournament, so the program has lived through this exact bracket trap before.
Total points140 projected

Explanation

  • Iowa State is efficient enough to land near 80 on its own against a defense that sits far below Big 12 standards in the predictive metrics.
  • Tennessee State plays faster than Iowa State and generates steals, which should keep the possession count from dropping too low.
  • Even so, Iowa State's defensive profile should keep Tennessee State closer to its 60-point showing against Tennessee than the free-flowing 80s and 90s it reached during parts of OVC play.
  • Iowa State's likely game script also matters: if the Cyclones control the glass and force live-ball turnovers, they can build a margin without needing an extreme pace.
  • An 80-60 finish gives a balanced middle ground: enough possessions for a solid total, but not the kind of open game Tennessee State would need to push the score much higher.

Risk factors

  • Tennessee State's backcourt can raise the total quickly if Nkrumah, Harper, and Harris win enough early possessions and get to the line.
  • Iowa State has several shooters who can break a total open if the Cyclones get comfortable early and start converting turnovers into clean transition threes.
  • If Iowa State gets a double-digit lead and slows the game down late, the final number can finish several points below this projection.

Historical context

  • Recent 2-vs-15 games have produced a few headline upsets, but the favorite usually still controls tempo and shot quality even when the underdog hangs around.
  • Iowa State's 82-65 tournament win over South Dakota State in March 2024 finished at 147 total points, which is a useful recent benchmark for a strong Cyclone team against a No. 15 seed.
  • Tennessee State's 2026 OVC title run proved the Tigers can score in bunches, but those games came against a much lower defensive tier than Iowa State's No. 4 KenPom defense.

Team Comparison

Compare seeds, NET rankings, KenPom profiles, records, and team production side by side.

Record Statistics

Statistic
Iowa State
Tennessee State
Record27-723-9
ConferenceBig 12OVC
Road5-38-4
Neutral3-11-1
Home19-314-4
Quad 18-70-2
Quad 210-01-0

Team Statistics

Statistic
Iowa State
Tennessee State
Team PPG81.880.5
Team RPG35.638.0
Team APG17.213.2
Team SPG9.09.4
Team BPG2.73.6
FG%49.0%46.0%
3P%38.7%33.1%
FT%67.2%76.5%

Rankings

Statistic
Iowa State
Tennessee State
Seed#2#15
NET Rank#6#172
KenPom Rank#6#187
KenPom Adj Off Rank#21#173
KenPom Adj Def Rank#4#212

Notable matchups

Use quadrant results and marquee games to compare how each team performed against NCAA Tournament caliber competition.

Iowa State

27-7
Notable matchups

Quad 1

8-7
  • W
    Neutral • NET #16
    83-8211/24/2025
  • W
    Away • NET #9
    81-5812/06/2025
  • W
    Home • NET #27
    66-6212/11/2025
  • W
    BaylorAway • NET #50
    70-6001/07/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #21
    63-8401/13/2026
  • L
    CincinnatiAway • NET #49
    70-7901/17/2026
  • W
    Oklahoma St.Away • NET #74
    84-7101/24/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #39
    55-6202/10/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #21
    74-5602/14/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #5
    70-6702/16/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #23
    69-7902/21/2026
  • L
    Home • NET #19
    73-8202/28/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #3
    57-7303/02/2026
  • W
    Neutral • NET #19
    75-5303/12/2026
  • L
    Neutral • NET #3
    80-8203/13/2026
Notable matchups

Quad 2

10-0
  • W
    CreightonNeutral • NET #83
    78-6011/25/2025
  • W
    SyracuseNeutral • NET #86
    95-6411/26/2025
  • W
    West VirginiaHome • NET #59
    80-5901/02/2026
  • W
    Oklahoma St.Home • NET #74
    83-7101/10/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #51
    87-5701/20/2026
  • W
    Kansas St.Away • NET #100
    95-6102/01/2026
  • W
    BaylorHome • NET #50
    72-6902/07/2026
  • W
    UtahAway • NET #132
    75-5902/24/2026
  • W
    Arizona St.Home • NET #73
    86-6503/07/2026
  • W
    Arizona St.Neutral • NET #73
    91-4203/11/2026

Tennessee State

23-9
Notable matchups

Quad 1

0-2
  • L
    BelmontAway • NET #63
    79-8711/08/2025
  • L
    Away • NET #20
    60-8911/20/2025
Notable matchups

Quad 2

1-0
  • W
    UNLVAway • NET #111
    63-6012/13/2025

Player Leaders

Review the scorers, rebounders, playmakers, and efficiency leaders most likely to shape this matchup.

Iowa State

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Milan MomcilovicF • GP 34 • MIN 30.1FG 51.2% • 3P 49.6% • FT 88.0%
    17.1PPG
  • 2
    Joshua JeffersonF • GP 34 • MIN 31.8FG 47.0% • 3P 34.5% • FT 70.0%
    16.9PPG
  • 3
    Tamin LipseyG • GP 31 • MIN 31.6FG 46.1% • 3P 31.1% • FT 64.4%
    13.3PPG
  • 4
    Blake BuchananF • GP 34 • MIN 24.1FG 64.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 47.8%
    8.4PPG
  • 5
    Killyan ToureG • GP 34 • MIN 24.7FG 44.8% • 3P 30.3% • FT 70.3%
    8.1PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Joshua JeffersonF • GP 34 • MIN 31.8FG 47.0% • 3P 34.5% • FT 70.0%
    7.6RPG
  • 2
    Blake BuchananF • GP 34 • MIN 24.1FG 64.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 47.8%
    5.7RPG
  • 3
    Nate HeiseG • GP 34 • MIN 24.3FG 43.1% • 3P 30.7% • FT 69.2%
    4.0RPG
  • 4
    Tamin LipseyG • GP 31 • MIN 31.6FG 46.1% • 3P 31.1% • FT 64.4%
    4.0RPG
  • 5
    Killyan ToureG • GP 34 • MIN 24.7FG 44.8% • 3P 30.3% • FT 70.3%
    3.2RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Tamin LipseyG • GP 31 • MIN 31.6FG 46.1% • 3P 31.1% • FT 64.4%
    5.0APG
  • 2
    Joshua JeffersonF • GP 34 • MIN 31.8FG 47.0% • 3P 34.5% • FT 70.0%
    4.9APG
  • 3
    Killyan ToureG • GP 34 • MIN 24.7FG 44.8% • 3P 30.3% • FT 70.3%
    2.2APG
  • 4
    Nate HeiseG • GP 34 • MIN 24.3FG 43.1% • 3P 30.7% • FT 69.2%
    1.6APG
  • 5
    Blake BuchananF • GP 34 • MIN 24.1FG 64.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 47.8%
    1.5APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Tamin LipseyG • GP 31 • MIN 31.6FG 46.1% • 3P 31.1% • FT 64.4%
    2.2SPG
  • 2
    Joshua JeffersonF • GP 34 • MIN 31.8FG 47.0% • 3P 34.5% • FT 70.0%
    1.7SPG
  • 3
    Killyan ToureG • GP 34 • MIN 24.7FG 44.8% • 3P 30.3% • FT 70.3%
    1.4SPG
  • 4
    Nate HeiseG • GP 34 • MIN 24.3FG 43.1% • 3P 30.7% • FT 69.2%
    0.9SPG
  • 5
    Milan MomcilovicF • GP 34 • MIN 30.1FG 51.2% • 3P 49.6% • FT 88.0%
    0.8SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Blake BuchananF • GP 34 • MIN 24.1FG 64.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 47.8%
    0.9BPG
  • 2
    Joshua JeffersonF • GP 34 • MIN 31.8FG 47.0% • 3P 34.5% • FT 70.0%
    0.9BPG
  • 3
    Dominykas PletaF • GP 32 • MIN 11.4FG 70.4% • 3P 0.0% • FT 61.7%
    0.3BPG
  • 4
    Milan MomcilovicF • GP 34 • MIN 30.1FG 51.2% • 3P 49.6% • FT 88.0%
    0.2BPG
  • 5
    Killyan ToureG • GP 34 • MIN 24.7FG 44.8% • 3P 30.3% • FT 70.3%
    0.2BPG

Tennessee State

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Aaron NkrumahG • GP 32 • MIN 31.4FG 43.7% • 3P 35.2% • FT 78.9%
    17.6PPG
  • 2
    Travis Harper IIG • GP 32 • MIN 31.3FG 47.6% • 3P 40.1% • FT 85.8%
    17.3PPG
  • 3
    Dante HarrisG • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 42.0% • 3P 31.3% • FT 73.0%
    11.7PPG
  • 4
    Antoine Lorick IIIF • GP 32 • MIN 21.1FG 52.0% • 3P 22.9% • FT 65.7%
    9.5PPG
  • 5
    Jalen PitreF • GP 32 • MIN 24.2FG 63.0% • 3P 16.7% • FT 85.2%
    6.5PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Jalen PitreF • GP 32 • MIN 24.2FG 63.0% • 3P 16.7% • FT 85.2%
    6.6RPG
  • 2
    Aaron NkrumahG • GP 32 • MIN 31.4FG 43.7% • 3P 35.2% • FT 78.9%
    5.5RPG
  • 3
    Antoine Lorick IIIF • GP 32 • MIN 21.1FG 52.0% • 3P 22.9% • FT 65.7%
    5.0RPG
  • 4
    Travis Harper IIG • GP 32 • MIN 31.3FG 47.6% • 3P 40.1% • FT 85.8%
    4.3RPG
  • 5
    Dante HarrisG • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 42.0% • 3P 31.3% • FT 73.0%
    3.7RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Dante HarrisG • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 42.0% • 3P 31.3% • FT 73.0%
    4.5APG
  • 2
    Aaron NkrumahG • GP 32 • MIN 31.4FG 43.7% • 3P 35.2% • FT 78.9%
    3.0APG
  • 3
    Travis Harper IIG • GP 32 • MIN 31.3FG 47.6% • 3P 40.1% • FT 85.8%
    1.2APG
  • 4
    Khalil LondonG • GP 24 • MIN 15.3FG 34.2% • 3P 23.6% • FT 75.0%
    1.1APG
  • 5
    Antoine Lorick IIIF • GP 32 • MIN 21.1FG 52.0% • 3P 22.9% • FT 65.7%
    1.0APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Aaron NkrumahG • GP 32 • MIN 31.4FG 43.7% • 3P 35.2% • FT 78.9%
    2.8SPG
  • 2
    Dante HarrisG • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 42.0% • 3P 31.3% • FT 73.0%
    1.7SPG
  • 3
    Jalen PitreF • GP 32 • MIN 24.2FG 63.0% • 3P 16.7% • FT 85.2%
    1.2SPG
  • 4
    Antoine Lorick IIIF • GP 32 • MIN 21.1FG 52.0% • 3P 22.9% • FT 65.7%
    1.1SPG
  • 5
    Travis Harper IIG • GP 32 • MIN 31.3FG 47.6% • 3P 40.1% • FT 85.8%
    1.0SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Antoine Lorick IIIF • GP 32 • MIN 21.1FG 52.0% • 3P 22.9% • FT 65.7%
    1.4BPG
  • 2
    Carlous WilliamsF • GP 31 • MIN 19.5FG 45.4% • 3P 32.7% • FT 76.7%
    0.5BPG
  • 3
    Jalen PitreF • GP 32 • MIN 24.2FG 63.0% • 3P 16.7% • FT 85.2%
    0.5BPG
  • 4
    Aaron NkrumahG • GP 32 • MIN 31.4FG 43.7% • 3P 35.2% • FT 78.9%
    0.4BPG
  • 5
    Travis Harper IIG • GP 32 • MIN 31.3FG 47.6% • 3P 40.1% • FT 85.8%
    0.4BPG

Injury Report

Check player availability and injury-related production impact before evaluating the final matchup edge.

Iowa State

2 listed
  • Xzavion MitchellF
    Game Time Decision
    InjuryUndisclosed
    Player statsGP 7 • MIN 3.1
    PPG1.0#10
    RPG0.3#12
    APG0.0#12
    SPG0.1#12
    BPG0.0#12
  • Mason WilliamsG
    Out For Season
    InjuryHip

Tennessee State

1 listed
  • Brandon WestonG
    Out
    InjuryUndisclosed