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Round of 64 • East Region

Kansas vs Cal Baptist prediction and matchup analysis

Kansas vs Cal Baptist is a Round of 64 game in the East Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The current projected score is Kansas 77, Cal Baptist 64. Compare seed, NET rank, KenPom efficiency, injuries, player leaders, and notable wins to evaluate both teams.

Round of 64East Region

Predictions

Review the projected final score, expected total, risk factors, and historical context for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Kansas 77–Cal Baptist 64
Final scoreKansas 77, Cal Baptist 64

Explanation

  • Kansas has the cleaner top-end profile almost everywhere that matters in this matchup: No. 4 seed, 23-10 record, No. 21 NET, 9-9 Quad 1, 7-1 Quad 2 in the season profile, plus a top-20 cluster in resume metrics and the No. 10 defense in KenPom.
  • The biggest separator is Kansas' defense. The Jayhawks' show KU leads the Big 12 in field-goal defense and three-point defense and ranks near the national top in both, which fits the season profile strong block rate and defensive efficiency profile.
  • Cal Baptist has a real lead guard in Dominique Daniels Jr. enough rebounding to stay competitive, but the Lancers' offense is still low-assist and fairly dependent on Daniels creating difficult shots. the season profile shows CBU at just 10.3 assists per game, and season numbers show Daniels carrying the scoring burden.
  • Kansas has seen a much harder nightly diet. Its schedule and Quad 1 volume are materially better than Cal Baptist's, while CBU's clearest step-up games include a 91-60 loss to BYU and a 65-46 loss at Utah Valley.
  • With no current injury flags for either team in the season profile, the healthier, deeper roster edge stays with Kansas rather than being offset by availability concerns.

Risk factors

  • Kansas' offense is good, not elite. the season profile raw KenPom line puts KU only 57th in adjusted offense, and the Jayhawks have had several real scoring dips away from home, so a cold shooting night could pull this into a one-possession game late.
  • Daniels is capable of blowing up the projection by himself. He has already authored a 47-point game this season and gives Cal Baptist a credible closer if the Lancers can keep the game within two possessions in the final five minutes.
  • Cal Baptist rebounds well enough to manufacture second chances. If Kansas loses the turnover battle and lets CBU extend possessions, the upset path gets real quickly.

Historical context

  • NCAA says No. 13 seeds were 33-127 all-time against No. 4 seeds after the 2025 tournament, so the upset is live but still clearly the less likely outcome.
  • Inference from NCAA 13-over-4 upset list: at least one No. 13 seed beat a No. 4 seed in 6 of the last 10 played tournaments from 2015-2025, which is why this seed line always deserves real upset respect.
  • Kansas has been clipped in this slot before: Bradley beat the Jayhawks as a 13-over-4 upset in 2006. That does not predict this game, but it is a reminder that this is not a protected seed line.
Total points141 projected

Explanation

  • The tempo base points to a moderate-possession game. the season profile KenPom lists Kansas at 67.6 adjusted tempo and Cal Baptist at 65.8, which blends into roughly 66 possessions after a small neutral-floor tournament slowdown.
  • The efficiency matchup lands Kansas in the upper 70s and Cal Baptist in the low-to-mid 60s. Kansas brings a 118.3 adjusted offense against CBU's 101.9 adjusted defense, while Cal Baptist's 107.9 adjusted offense runs into Kansas' 93.9 adjusted defense.
  • Cal Baptist's low-assist profile is a drag on total scoring against a disciplined favorite. The Lancers can rebound, but they do not generate easy offense as consistently as higher-end upset candidates usually do.
  • Kansas should score enough because CBU has not faced this kind of size/length combination often, but KU's own offense has been too uneven to project a true 80-plus point outburst with confidence.
  • A 77-64 split best fits the combined profile: Kansas controls the game more than it explodes offensively, and Cal Baptist does enough through Daniels and the glass to avoid a total collapse.

Risk factors

  • If Kansas turns defense into transition or if Daniels drags the game into a whistle-heavy, free-throw-heavy script, the total can move into the high 140s.
  • If Kansas' half-court offense stalls the way it has in some road and neutral games, the total can fall into the mid-130s even with a Kansas win.
  • A blowout can cut both ways: garbage-time threes can inflate the number, but a dead final eight minutes can also kill the pace completely.

Historical context

  • Recent NCAA 13-over-4 upset scores mostly live in a broad 120- to 150-point band, so 141 sits in a pretty normal first-round range for this seed line rather than at an extreme.
  • Tournament openers between a power-conference favorite and a mid-major underdog often lose a possession or two relative to regular-season expectations because of neutral floors and longer scouting prep; this projection leans into that modest slowdown.

Team Comparison

Compare seeds, NET rankings, KenPom profiles, records, and team production side by side.

Record Statistics

Statistic
Kansas
Cal Baptist
Record23-1025-8
ConferenceBig 12WAC
Road4-47-4
Neutral3-22-1
Home16-416-3
Quad 19-90-1
Quad 27-12-4

Team Statistics

Statistic
Kansas
Cal Baptist
Team PPG75.673.0
Team RPG38.839.9
Team APG14.310.3
Team SPG5.55.5
Team BPG5.72.9
FG%45.3%43.2%
3P%35.0%33.7%
FT%76.7%71.9%

Rankings

Statistic
Kansas
Cal Baptist
Seed#4#13
NET Rank#21#98
KenPom Rank#21#106
KenPom Adj Off Rank#57#191
KenPom Adj Def Rank#10#50

Notable matchups

Use quadrant results and marquee games to compare how each team performed against NCAA Tournament caliber competition.

Kansas

23-10
Notable matchups

Quad 1

9-9
  • L
    Away • NET #24
    74-8711/07/2025
  • L
    Neutral • NET #1
    66-7811/18/2025
  • W
    Neutral • NET #20
    81-7611/26/2025
  • L
    Home • NET #10
    56-6112/02/2025
  • W
    Away • NET #36
    77-76*12/13/2025
  • L
    Away • NET #51
    75-8101/03/2026
  • L
    West VirginiaAway • NET #59
    75-8601/10/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #6
    84-6301/13/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #23
    90-8201/31/2026
  • W
    Away • NET #19
    64-6102/02/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #3
    82-7802/09/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #6
    56-7402/14/2026
  • W
    Oklahoma St.Away • NET #74
    81-6902/18/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #5
    69-5602/23/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #3
    61-8402/28/2026
  • L
    Arizona St.Away • NET #73
    60-7003/03/2026
  • W
    Neutral • NET #39
    78-7303/12/2026
  • L
    Neutral • NET #5
    47-6903/13/2026
Notable matchups

Quad 2

7-1
  • W
    Notre DameNeutral • NET #94
    71-6111/24/2025
  • W
    SyracuseNeutral • NET #86
    71-6011/25/2025
  • W
    Home • NET #58
    80-6012/07/2025
  • W
    Home • NET #39
    104-100*01/06/2026
  • W
    BaylorHome • NET #50
    80-6201/16/2026
  • W
    ColoradoAway • NET #76
    75-6901/20/2026
  • W
    Kansas St.Away • NET #100
    86-6201/24/2026
  • L
    CincinnatiHome • NET #49
    68-8402/21/2026

Cal Baptist

25-8
Notable matchups

Quad 1

0-1
  • L
    Neutral • NET #23
    60-9112/03/2025
Notable matchups

Quad 2

2-4
  • W
    UC IrvineAway • NET #117
    69-6111/07/2025
  • L
    ColoradoAway • NET #76
    70-7812/01/2025
  • L
    UtahAway • NET #132
    85-9112/06/2025
  • L
    Utah ValleyAway • NET #85
    66-7312/29/2025
  • L
    Utah ValleyAway • NET #85
    46-6502/19/2026
  • W
    Utah ValleyNeutral • NET #85
    63-6103/15/2026

Player Leaders

Review the scorers, rebounders, playmakers, and efficiency leaders most likely to shape this matchup.

Kansas

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Darryn PetersonG • GP 22 • MIN 28.4FG 44.2% • 3P 38.4% • FT 82.5%
    19.8PPG
  • 2
    Tre WhiteG • GP 33 • MIN 31.4FG 45.7% • 3P 42.1% • FT 86.7%
    13.8PPG
  • 3
    Flory BidungaF • GP 33 • MIN 31.7FG 64.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 66.0%
    13.5PPG
  • 4
    Melvin Council Jr.G • GP 33 • MIN 34.8FG 39.6% • 3P 31.3% • FT 76.9%
    12.9PPG
  • 5
    Bryson TillerF • GP 33 • MIN 25.9FG 45.9% • 3P 27.5% • FT 68.7%
    8.2PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Flory BidungaF • GP 33 • MIN 31.7FG 64.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 66.0%
    9.2RPG
  • 2
    Tre WhiteG • GP 33 • MIN 31.4FG 45.7% • 3P 42.1% • FT 86.7%
    6.7RPG
  • 3
    Bryson TillerF • GP 33 • MIN 25.9FG 45.9% • 3P 27.5% • FT 68.7%
    6.0RPG
  • 4
    Melvin Council Jr.G • GP 33 • MIN 34.8FG 39.6% • 3P 31.3% • FT 76.9%
    4.8RPG
  • 5
    Darryn PetersonG • GP 22 • MIN 28.4FG 44.2% • 3P 38.4% • FT 82.5%
    4.4RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Melvin Council Jr.G • GP 33 • MIN 34.8FG 39.6% • 3P 31.3% • FT 76.9%
    5.1APG
  • 2
    Tre WhiteG • GP 33 • MIN 31.4FG 45.7% • 3P 42.1% • FT 86.7%
    1.8APG
  • 3
    Darryn PetersonG • GP 22 • MIN 28.4FG 44.2% • 3P 38.4% • FT 82.5%
    1.7APG
  • 4
    Flory BidungaF • GP 33 • MIN 31.7FG 64.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 66.0%
    1.5APG
  • 5
    Elmarko JacksonG • GP 32 • MIN 18.0FG 37.0% • 3P 37.2% • FT 82.5%
    1.5APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Darryn PetersonG • GP 22 • MIN 28.4FG 44.2% • 3P 38.4% • FT 82.5%
    1.5SPG
  • 2
    Melvin Council Jr.G • GP 33 • MIN 34.8FG 39.6% • 3P 31.3% • FT 76.9%
    1.1SPG
  • 3
    Elmarko JacksonG • GP 32 • MIN 18.0FG 37.0% • 3P 37.2% • FT 82.5%
    0.8SPG
  • 4
    Flory BidungaF • GP 33 • MIN 31.7FG 64.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 66.0%
    0.7SPG
  • 5
    Tre WhiteG • GP 33 • MIN 31.4FG 45.7% • 3P 42.1% • FT 86.7%
    0.6SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Flory BidungaF • GP 33 • MIN 31.7FG 64.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 66.0%
    2.6BPG
  • 2
    Bryson TillerF • GP 33 • MIN 25.9FG 45.9% • 3P 27.5% • FT 68.7%
    1.3BPG
  • 3
    Darryn PetersonG • GP 22 • MIN 28.4FG 44.2% • 3P 38.4% • FT 82.5%
    0.5BPG
  • 4
    Tre WhiteG • GP 33 • MIN 31.4FG 45.7% • 3P 42.1% • FT 86.7%
    0.4BPG
  • 5
    Melvin Council Jr.G • GP 33 • MIN 34.8FG 39.6% • 3P 31.3% • FT 76.9%
    0.3BPG

Cal Baptist

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Dominique Daniels Jr.G • GP 32 • MIN 36.2FG 43.7% • 3P 32.8% • FT 81.5%
    23.2PPG
  • 2
    Martel WilliamsG • GP 32 • MIN 33.0FG 39.7% • 3P 33.3% • FT 77.4%
    12.7PPG
  • 3
    Jayden JacksonG • GP 27 • MIN 29.4FG 32.5% • 3P 35.5% • FT 75.0%
    9.3PPG
  • 4
    Jonathan GrimanF • GP 30 • MIN 22.8FG 58.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 54.5%
    6.1PPG
  • 5
    Devon MalcolmF • GP 32 • MIN 13.8FG 45.5% • 3P 31.3% • FT 61.8%
    5.9PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Thomas NdongF • GP 31 • MIN 17.6FG 56.9% • 3P 20.0% • FT 62.0%
    6.6RPG
  • 2
    Jonathan GrimanF • GP 30 • MIN 22.8FG 58.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 54.5%
    5.9RPG
  • 3
    Bradey HenigeF • GP 32 • MIN 20.0FG 53.2% • 3P 0.0% • FT 58.5%
    5.5RPG
  • 4
    Martel WilliamsG • GP 32 • MIN 33.0FG 39.7% • 3P 33.3% • FT 77.4%
    4.8RPG
  • 5
    Dominique Daniels Jr.G • GP 32 • MIN 36.2FG 43.7% • 3P 32.8% • FT 81.5%
    3.7RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Dominique Daniels Jr.G • GP 32 • MIN 36.2FG 43.7% • 3P 32.8% • FT 81.5%
    3.2APG
  • 2
    Jordan MullerG • GP 33 • MIN 21.1FG 30.5% • 3P 35.2% • FT 75.6%
    1.9APG
  • 3
    Jayden JacksonG • GP 27 • MIN 29.4FG 32.5% • 3P 35.5% • FT 75.0%
    1.8APG
  • 4
    Martel WilliamsG • GP 32 • MIN 33.0FG 39.7% • 3P 33.3% • FT 77.4%
    1.6APG
  • 5
    Devon MalcolmF • GP 32 • MIN 13.8FG 45.5% • 3P 31.3% • FT 61.8%
    0.6APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Devon MalcolmF • GP 32 • MIN 13.8FG 45.5% • 3P 31.3% • FT 61.8%
    1.2SPG
  • 2
    Dominique Daniels Jr.G • GP 32 • MIN 36.2FG 43.7% • 3P 32.8% • FT 81.5%
    1.0SPG
  • 3
    Martel WilliamsG • GP 32 • MIN 33.0FG 39.7% • 3P 33.3% • FT 77.4%
    0.8SPG
  • 4
    Jayden JacksonG • GP 27 • MIN 29.4FG 32.5% • 3P 35.5% • FT 75.0%
    0.6SPG
  • 5
    Jordan MullerG • GP 33 • MIN 21.1FG 30.5% • 3P 35.2% • FT 75.6%
    0.5SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Jonathan GrimanF • GP 30 • MIN 22.8FG 58.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 54.5%
    0.9BPG
  • 2
    Rene D'AmelioF • GP 18 • MIN 10.6FG 50.0% • 3P 25.0% • FT 52.4%
    0.6BPG
  • 3
    Thomas NdongF • GP 31 • MIN 17.6FG 56.9% • 3P 20.0% • FT 62.0%
    0.5BPG
  • 4
    Jayden JacksonG • GP 27 • MIN 29.4FG 32.5% • 3P 35.5% • FT 75.0%
    0.3BPG
  • 5
    Bradey HenigeF • GP 32 • MIN 20.0FG 53.2% • 3P 0.0% • FT 58.5%
    0.3BPG

Injury Report

Check player availability and injury-related production impact before evaluating the final matchup edge.

Kansas

0 listed

No injuries listed for this team.

Cal Baptist

0 listed

No injuries listed for this team.