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First Four • South Region

Lehigh vs Prairie View A&M prediction and matchup analysis

Lehigh vs Prairie View A&M is a First Four game in the South Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The current projected score is Lehigh 76, Prairie View A&M 72. Compare seed, NET rank, KenPom efficiency, injuries, player leaders, and notable wins to evaluate both teams.

First FourSouth Region

Predictions

Review the projected final score, expected total, risk factors, and historical context for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Lehigh 76–Prairie View A&M 72
Final scoreLehigh 76, Prairie View A&M 72

Explanation

  • Lehigh has the cleaner full-profile edge in the season profile: better NET rank (275 vs. 300), better KenPom overall (284 vs. 288), and the better KenPom offense rank (290 vs. 310).
  • Lehigh is the more efficient shooting team overall, with edges in field-goal percentage (46.4% vs. 44.3%), three-point percentage (35.9% vs. 33.4%), and assists (14.3 vs. 11.9), which points to a steadier half-court offense.
  • Nasir Whitlock (21.0 PPG, 44.5% from three) and Hank Alvey (15.0 PPG, 62.4% FG) give Lehigh the most reliable shotmaking duo in the matchup.
  • Prairie View A&M still has enough pressure and athleticism to stay live. The Panthers post more steals and blocks, and their KenPom defensive rank (232) is slightly better than Lehigh's (257), so this projects as close rather than comfortable.
  • Recent form matters on both sides, but Lehigh's conference tournament path looks a bit more sustainable: the Mountain Hawks beat Holy Cross, Colgate, and Boston University to win the Patriot title, while Prairie View A&M had to win four games in four days as the No. 8 seed in the SWAC tournament.

Risk factors

  • Prairie View A&M's guard scoring can flip the game quickly. Dontae Horne (20.2 PPG) and Tai'Reon Joseph (18.2 PPG) can create an upset if Lehigh loses the turnover battle.
  • Both teams were only 1-2 on neutral floors in the season profile, so there is real translation risk in Dayton.
  • Lehigh's pick case depends heavily on Whitlock continuing his high-efficiency perimeter scoring. If he cools off, this becomes a one-possession game late.

Historical context

  • Since the First Four format settled in, No. 16 play-in games have usually been competitive rather than true blowouts, which supports a single-digit margin.
  • Prairie View A&M's last First Four appearance was a 2019 loss to Fairleigh Dickinson, 82-76, another result that stayed tight deep into the second half.
  • One-bid league champions often bring real conference-tournament momentum into Dayton, which is another reason this projection stays close.
Total points148 projected

Explanation

  • A simple blend of both teams' scoring and opponent-allowance profiles lands in the low 150s, but this matchup looks a bit slower than that once neutral-site tournament pace is layered in.
  • Lehigh's step-up games against stronger opponents were generally lower-scoring than Prairie View A&M's, which pulls the projection down from Prairie View's raw season tempo.
  • Prairie View A&M's Q1/Q2 losses show why Lehigh is projected into the mid-70s: the Panthers allowed 91, 94, 104, 105, and 111 points in those five losses.
  • Prairie View A&M still scores enough to keep the total healthy. The Panthers averaged nearly 79 points per game in the season profile and should get into the low 70s behind Horne and Joseph.
  • That combination points to a game that is not a true track meet, but still lands above a grind-it-out low-140s outcome.

Risk factors

  • If Prairie View A&M turns this into a transition game with live-ball steals, the total can move into the mid-150s quickly.
  • If Lehigh controls tempo and both teams spend long stretches in the half court, the game can slide down into the low 140s.
  • Free-throw volume is the biggest swing factor. A tight late game can add several points above the base projection.

Historical context

  • Recent No. 16 First Four games have commonly landed in the 130s to 150s, so 148 fits the middle of that band.
  • Prairie View A&M's 2019 First Four game finished at 158 total points, which shows this program's style can support a slightly higher-scoring play-in.
  • The format also has a real low-end outcome when nerves slow things down, so the projection stays below the low 150s even with Prairie View A&M's pace.

Team Comparison

Compare seeds, NET rankings, KenPom profiles, records, and team production side by side.

Record Statistics

Statistic
Lehigh
Prairie View A&M
Record18-1618-17
ConferencePatriotSWAC
Road5-85-9
Neutral1-21-2
Home12-612-6
Quad 10-20-3
Quad 20-10-2

Team Statistics

Statistic
Lehigh
Prairie View A&M
Team PPG73.278.9
Team RPG31.934.0
Team APG14.311.9
Team SPG6.77.9
Team BPG3.34.7
FG%46.4%44.3%
3P%35.9%33.4%
FT%73.1%75.3%

Rankings

Statistic
Lehigh
Prairie View A&M
Seed#16#16
NET Rank#275#300
KenPom Rank#284#288
KenPom Adj Off Rank#290#310
KenPom Adj Def Rank#257#232

Notable matchups

Use quadrant results and marquee games to compare how each team performed against NCAA Tournament caliber competition.

Lehigh

18-16
Notable matchups

Quad 1

0-2
  • L
    Away • NET #5
    57-7511/03/2025
  • L
    West VirginiaAway • NET #59
    47-6911/09/2025
Notable matchups

Quad 2

0-1
  • L
    RutgersAway • NET #134
    72-8411/14/2025

Prairie View A&M

18-17
Notable matchups

Quad 1

0-3
  • L
    Oklahoma St.Away • NET #74
    67-9411/12/2025
  • L
    Away • NET #58
    73-9111/17/2025
  • L
    Away • NET #44
    82-11112/29/2025
Notable matchups

Quad 2

0-2
  • L
    Wichita St.Away • NET #78
    62-10511/08/2025
  • L
    LSUAway • NET #77
    90-10412/22/2025

Player Leaders

Review the scorers, rebounders, playmakers, and efficiency leaders most likely to shape this matchup.

Lehigh

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Nasir WhitlockG • GP 34 • MIN 34.9FG 47.6% • 3P 44.5% • FT 79.2%
    21.0PPG
  • 2
    Hank AlveyF • GP 34 • MIN 30.7FG 62.4% • 3P 41.7% • FT 66.0%
    15.0PPG
  • 3
    Joshua IngramG • GP 34 • MIN 34.7FG 49.6% • 3P 38.8% • FT 72.5%
    10.6PPG
  • 4
    Edouard BenoitF • GP 23 • MIN 28.4FG 40.1% • 3P 30.8% • FT 82.5%
    10.3PPG
  • 5
    Andrew UrosevicG • GP 28 • MIN 18.9FG 39.9% • 3P 33.3% • FT 77.8%
    7.3PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Hank AlveyF • GP 34 • MIN 30.7FG 62.4% • 3P 41.7% • FT 66.0%
    6.9RPG
  • 2
    Edouard BenoitF • GP 23 • MIN 28.4FG 40.1% • 3P 30.8% • FT 82.5%
    6.0RPG
  • 3
    Joshua IngramG • GP 34 • MIN 34.7FG 49.6% • 3P 38.8% • FT 72.5%
    5.1RPG
  • 4
    Nasir WhitlockG • GP 34 • MIN 34.9FG 47.6% • 3P 44.5% • FT 79.2%
    3.5RPG
  • 5
    Jalen VazquezG • GP 30 • MIN 21.8FG 38.3% • 3P 28.9% • FT 68.6%
    2.5RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Nasir WhitlockG • GP 34 • MIN 34.9FG 47.6% • 3P 44.5% • FT 79.2%
    3.4APG
  • 2
    Joshua IngramG • GP 34 • MIN 34.7FG 49.6% • 3P 38.8% • FT 72.5%
    3.3APG
  • 3
    Hank AlveyF • GP 34 • MIN 30.7FG 62.4% • 3P 41.7% • FT 66.0%
    2.1APG
  • 4
    Jalen VazquezG • GP 30 • MIN 21.8FG 38.3% • 3P 28.9% • FT 68.6%
    2.0APG
  • 5
    Caleb ThomasG • GP 22 • MIN 21.7FG 34.2% • 3P 18.8% • FT 58.3%
    2.0APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Joshua IngramG • GP 34 • MIN 34.7FG 49.6% • 3P 38.8% • FT 72.5%
    1.4SPG
  • 2
    Hank AlveyF • GP 34 • MIN 30.7FG 62.4% • 3P 41.7% • FT 66.0%
    1.1SPG
  • 3
    Jalen VazquezG • GP 30 • MIN 21.8FG 38.3% • 3P 28.9% • FT 68.6%
    1.0SPG
  • 4
    Nasir WhitlockG • GP 34 • MIN 34.9FG 47.6% • 3P 44.5% • FT 79.2%
    1.0SPG
  • 5
    Caleb ThomasG • GP 22 • MIN 21.7FG 34.2% • 3P 18.8% • FT 58.3%
    1.0SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Hank AlveyF • GP 34 • MIN 30.7FG 62.4% • 3P 41.7% • FT 66.0%
    1.8BPG
  • 2
    Joshua IngramG • GP 34 • MIN 34.7FG 49.6% • 3P 38.8% • FT 72.5%
    0.7BPG
  • 3
    Peter KramerG • GP 34 • MIN 20.4FG 38.7% • 3P 37.5% • FT 68.4%
    0.3BPG
  • 4
    Jake PikeF • GP 17 • MIN 9.6FG 44.4% • 3P 25.0% • FT 80.0%
    0.3BPG
  • 5
    Edouard BenoitF • GP 23 • MIN 28.4FG 40.1% • 3P 30.8% • FT 82.5%
    0.2BPG

Prairie View A&M

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Dontae HorneG • GP 35 • MIN 31.8FG 44.8% • 3P 31.7% • FT 79.8%
    20.2PPG
  • 2
    Tai'Reon JosephG • GP 27 • MIN 30.6FG 41.1% • 3P 30.7% • FT 76.3%
    18.2PPG
  • 3
    Cory WellsF • GP 35 • MIN 33.0FG 39.3% • 3P 37.0% • FT 73.5%
    13.1PPG
  • 4
    Lance WilliamsG • GP 35 • MIN 35.3FG 44.8% • 3P 43.1% • FT 79.6%
    10.1PPG
  • 5
    Doug YoungG • GP 3 • MIN 26.3FG 44.4% • 3P 36.4% • FT 0.0%
    9.3PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Cory WellsF • GP 35 • MIN 33.0FG 39.3% • 3P 37.0% • FT 73.5%
    7.1RPG
  • 2
    Dontae HorneG • GP 35 • MIN 31.8FG 44.8% • 3P 31.7% • FT 79.8%
    4.5RPG
  • 3
    Joey MadimbaG • GP 25 • MIN 18.4FG 46.7% • 3P 24.5% • FT 72.1%
    3.6RPG
  • 4
    Corey DunningF • GP 32 • MIN 17.8FG 58.1% • 3P 0.0% • FT 25.0%
    3.4RPG
  • 5
    Lance WilliamsG • GP 35 • MIN 35.3FG 44.8% • 3P 43.1% • FT 79.6%
    3.2RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Lance WilliamsG • GP 35 • MIN 35.3FG 44.8% • 3P 43.1% • FT 79.6%
    3.3APG
  • 2
    Dontae HorneG • GP 35 • MIN 31.8FG 44.8% • 3P 31.7% • FT 79.8%
    3.1APG
  • 3
    Cory WellsF • GP 35 • MIN 33.0FG 39.3% • 3P 37.0% • FT 73.5%
    2.2APG
  • 4
    Doug YoungG • GP 3 • MIN 26.3FG 44.4% • 3P 36.4% • FT 0.0%
    1.7APG
  • 5
    Tai'Reon JosephG • GP 27 • MIN 30.6FG 41.1% • 3P 30.7% • FT 76.3%
    1.0APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Dontae HorneG • GP 35 • MIN 31.8FG 44.8% • 3P 31.7% • FT 79.8%
    1.9SPG
  • 2
    Doug YoungG • GP 3 • MIN 26.3FG 44.4% • 3P 36.4% • FT 0.0%
    1.3SPG
  • 3
    Cory WellsF • GP 35 • MIN 33.0FG 39.3% • 3P 37.0% • FT 73.5%
    1.2SPG
  • 4
    Tai'Reon JosephG • GP 27 • MIN 30.6FG 41.1% • 3P 30.7% • FT 76.3%
    1.1SPG
  • 5
    Lance WilliamsG • GP 35 • MIN 35.3FG 44.8% • 3P 43.1% • FT 79.6%
    1.1SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Corey DunningF • GP 32 • MIN 17.8FG 58.1% • 3P 0.0% • FT 25.0%
    1.2BPG
  • 2
    Cory WellsF • GP 35 • MIN 33.0FG 39.3% • 3P 37.0% • FT 73.5%
    1.1BPG
  • 3
    Joey MadimbaG • GP 25 • MIN 18.4FG 46.7% • 3P 24.5% • FT 72.1%
    0.7BPG
  • 4
    Keeshawn MasonF • GP 27 • MIN 16.2FG 46.2% • 3P 33.3% • FT 65.9%
    0.6BPG
  • 5
    Hassane DialloF • GP 26 • MIN 9.4FG 57.1% • 3P 0.0% • FT 60.0%
    0.6BPG

Injury Report

Check player availability and injury-related production impact before evaluating the final matchup edge.

Lehigh

0 listed

No injuries listed for this team.

Prairie View A&M

1 listed
  • Doug YoungG
    Out
    InjuryUndisclosed
    Player statsGP 3 • MIN 26.3
    PPG9.3#5
    RPG2.3#10
    APG1.7#4
    SPG1.3#2
    BPG0.0#15