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Round of 64 • East Region

Louisville vs South Florida prediction and matchup analysis

Louisville vs South Florida is a Round of 64 game in the East Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The current projected score is Louisville 82, South Florida 76. Compare seed, NET rank, KenPom efficiency, injuries, player leaders, and notable wins to evaluate both teams.

Round of 64East Region

Predictions

Review the projected final score, expected total, risk factors, and historical context for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Louisville 82–South Florida 76
Final scoreLouisville 82, South Florida 76

Explanation

  • Louisville owns the stronger predictive profile: NET 17 vs. 45, KenPom 19 vs. 47, and broader resume metrics that consistently lean toward the Cardinals.
  • The Cardinals also bring the cleaner efficiency profile. Louisville is ahead in field-goal percentage, three-point percentage, and free-throw percentage, with Ryan Conwell, Mikel Brown Jr., and Isaac McKneely giving them steady perimeter scoring.
  • South Florida's offense is real. The Bulls are near 88 points per game, pound the offensive glass, and create heavy free-throw volume, which is why they still project well into the 70s against the better defense.
  • Schedule strength is the main separator. Louisville went 8-10 in Quad 1 with wins over Kentucky, Baylor, SMU, and Miami, while South Florida's resume is good but built against a materially softer schedule and weaker average win profile.
  • South Florida's road profile and current form keep this close, but on a neutral floor I trust Louisville's shot-making and top-end resume a little more late.

Risk factors

  • South Florida can absolutely flip this game if its pressure, offensive rebounding, and free-throw volume create a large possession edge.
  • Mikel Brown's game-time-decision status matters. If Louisville's lead-guard creation is limited, the Cardinals lose some of their best late-clock offense.
  • Louisville was only 4-7 in Division I road games, so this is not a profile that removes variance away from home.

Historical context

  • NCAA bracket-history page shows No. 11 seeds have 65 wins over No. 6 seeds since the field expanded, including 22 since 2011, so a tight 6-vs-11 projection is more historically normal than a runaway.
  • Louisville's own season history fits that template: several of its best March and late-season wins over tournament-caliber opponents were competitive rather than comfortable, including 62-58 over SMU and 92-89 at Miami.
  • South Florida is not arriving cold. The Bulls enter on a nine-game winning streak and just won the AAC tournament, which is the kind of form spike that often makes 6-vs-11 games dangerous.
Total points158 projected

Explanation

  • The raw scoring environment starts high. Louisville averages 84.8 points per game and South Florida 87.7, so this matchup does not begin with a low-possession baseline.
  • Pace supports an upper-150s total. Louisville plays at a healthy tempo, South Florida plays even faster, and the Bulls rank 15th nationally in adjusted tempo.
  • I trim the number to 158 instead of pushing into the 160s because Louisville's defense is materially better than most of what South Florida saw in AAC play, and neutral-site tournament games usually lose a few easy-transition possessions.
  • South Florida's offensive rebounding and free-throw volume are major over drivers. The Bulls rank near the top of the country in rebounds, offensive rebounds, and free throws made and attempted.
  • Louisville keeps the total elevated from the other side because its shooting profile is steadier and its recent high-end games frequently cleared 75 points.

Risk factors

  • If Louisville controls the glass and forces South Florida into longer half-court possessions, the total can fall into the high 140s.
  • If South Florida gets the whistle and turns this into a free-throw-heavy game, the total can jump past this estimate quickly.
  • A cold three-point night from Louisville would hurt both the winner pick and the scoring projection, because the Cardinals' cleanest offensive edge is shot efficiency.

Historical context

  • The recent 6-vs-11 history matters for totals too: these games are often live late because the underdog stays within reach, which creates more intentional fouling and late free throws. That is an inference from the NCAA seed-history profile, not a standalone scoring stat.
  • South Florida set a program record with its 15th 90-point game before Selection Sunday, so there is real season-long evidence behind the Bulls' high-scoring identity.
  • Louisville's high-end schedule did not force every big game into the mud. Many of its Quad 1 results still landed in the 150s or higher, which supports an upper-150s projection more than a low-140s tournament slog.

Team Comparison

Compare seeds, NET rankings, KenPom profiles, records, and team production side by side.

Record Statistics

Statistic
Louisville
South Florida
Record23-1024-8
ConferenceACCAmerican
Road5-56-4
Neutral3-23-1
Home15-315-3
Quad 18-102-3
Quad 24-05-2

Team Statistics

Statistic
Louisville
South Florida
Team PPG84.887.7
Team RPG38.542.7
Team APG17.117.2
Team SPG6.99.2
Team BPG3.34.1
FG%47.0%43.9%
3P%35.7%33.2%
FT%76.9%74.4%

Rankings

Statistic
Louisville
South Florida
Seed#6#11
NET Rank#17#45
KenPom Rank#19#47
KenPom Adj Off Rank#19#61
KenPom Adj Def Rank#25#40

Notable matchups

Use quadrant results and marquee games to compare how each team performed against NCAA Tournament caliber competition.

Louisville

23-10
Notable matchups

Quad 1

8-10
  • W
    Home • NET #28
    96-8811/11/2025
  • W
    CincinnatiNeutral • NET #49
    74-6411/21/2025
  • L
    Away • NET #15
    80-8912/03/2025
  • W
    IndianaNeutral • NET #41
    87-7812/06/2025
  • L
    Away • NET #20
    62-8312/16/2025
  • W
    CaliforniaAway • NET #67
    90-7012/30/2025
  • L
    StanfordAway • NET #61
    76-8001/02/2026
  • L
    Home • NET #1
    73-8401/06/2026
  • L
    Home • NET #12
    70-7901/13/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #1
    52-8301/26/2026
  • W
    Wake ForestAway • NET #66
    88-8002/07/2026
  • W
    BaylorNeutral • NET #50
    82-7102/14/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #37
    85-9502/17/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #24
    74-7702/23/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #34
    75-8002/28/2026
  • W
    Away • NET #32
    92-8903/07/2026
  • W
    Neutral • NET #37
    62-5803/11/2026
  • L
    Neutral • NET #32
    73-7803/12/2026
Notable matchups

Quad 2

4-0
  • W
    PittsburghAway • NET #104
    100-5901/17/2026
  • W
    Virginia TechHome • NET #55
    85-7101/24/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #37
    88-7401/31/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #36
    118-7702/09/2026

South Florida

24-8
Notable matchups

Quad 1

2-3
  • L
    Oklahoma St.Away • NET #74
    95-10311/19/2025
  • L
    Neutral • NET #43
    66-7811/26/2025
  • W
    Home • NET #26
    74-6112/04/2025
  • L
    Away • NET #18
    93-10412/17/2025
  • W
    TulsaAway • NET #52
    93-7801/10/2026
Notable matchups

Quad 2

5-2
  • L
    George WashingtonNeutral • NET #91
    95-9911/08/2025
  • L
    Colorado St.Neutral • NET #87
    68-8311/28/2025
  • W
    UABAway • NET #118
    82-6901/22/2026
  • W
    TulsaHome • NET #52
    80-7402/08/2026
  • W
    Wichita St.Away • NET #78
    66-5802/11/2026
  • W
    Fla. AtlanticAway • NET #123
    83-81*02/15/2026
  • W
    MemphisAway • NET #135
    96-8903/05/2026

Player Leaders

Review the scorers, rebounders, playmakers, and efficiency leaders most likely to shape this matchup.

Louisville

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Ryan ConwellG • GP 32 • MIN 30.6FG 40.7% • 3P 34.2% • FT 85.3%
    18.7PPG
  • 2
    Mikel Brown Jr.G • GP 21 • MIN 29.2FG 41.0% • 3P 34.4% • FT 84.4%
    18.2PPG
  • 3
    J'Vonne HadleyG • GP 32 • MIN 27.8FG 57.3% • 3P 45.6% • FT 70.2%
    11.8PPG
  • 4
    Isaac McKneelyG • GP 33 • MIN 28.8FG 40.7% • 3P 38.1% • FT 86.0%
    10.6PPG
  • 5
    Sananda FruF • GP 33 • MIN 22.0FG 75.9% • 3P 50.0% • FT 63.1%
    9.2PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Sananda FruF • GP 33 • MIN 22.0FG 75.9% • 3P 50.0% • FT 63.1%
    6.0RPG
  • 2
    J'Vonne HadleyG • GP 32 • MIN 27.8FG 57.3% • 3P 45.6% • FT 70.2%
    5.2RPG
  • 3
    Ryan ConwellG • GP 32 • MIN 30.6FG 40.7% • 3P 34.2% • FT 85.3%
    4.8RPG
  • 4
    Khani RoothsF • GP 29 • MIN 16.5FG 45.5% • 3P 22.2% • FT 64.9%
    4.4RPG
  • 5
    Adrian WooleyG • GP 33 • MIN 22.1FG 44.4% • 3P 34.3% • FT 80.9%
    4.0RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Mikel Brown Jr.G • GP 21 • MIN 29.2FG 41.0% • 3P 34.4% • FT 84.4%
    4.7APG
  • 2
    Aly KhalifaC • GP 33 • MIN 12.0FG 43.2% • 3P 40.7% • FT 62.5%
    2.6APG
  • 3
    Ryan ConwellG • GP 32 • MIN 30.6FG 40.7% • 3P 34.2% • FT 85.3%
    2.5APG
  • 4
    Adrian WooleyG • GP 33 • MIN 22.1FG 44.4% • 3P 34.3% • FT 80.9%
    1.8APG
  • 5
    J'Vonne HadleyG • GP 32 • MIN 27.8FG 57.3% • 3P 45.6% • FT 70.2%
    1.7APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Mikel Brown Jr.G • GP 21 • MIN 29.2FG 41.0% • 3P 34.4% • FT 84.4%
    1.2SPG
  • 2
    Ryan ConwellG • GP 32 • MIN 30.6FG 40.7% • 3P 34.2% • FT 85.3%
    1.2SPG
  • 3
    J'Vonne HadleyG • GP 32 • MIN 27.8FG 57.3% • 3P 45.6% • FT 70.2%
    1.0SPG
  • 4
    Kobe RodgersG • GP 32 • MIN 13.8FG 49.3% • 3P 36.7% • FT 86.2%
    0.8SPG
  • 5
    Adrian WooleyG • GP 33 • MIN 22.1FG 44.4% • 3P 34.3% • FT 80.9%
    0.7SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Sananda FruF • GP 33 • MIN 22.0FG 75.9% • 3P 50.0% • FT 63.1%
    1.4BPG
  • 2
    Khani RoothsF • GP 29 • MIN 16.5FG 45.5% • 3P 22.2% • FT 64.9%
    0.4BPG
  • 3
    Aly KhalifaC • GP 33 • MIN 12.0FG 43.2% • 3P 40.7% • FT 62.5%
    0.4BPG
  • 4
    J'Vonne HadleyG • GP 32 • MIN 27.8FG 57.3% • 3P 45.6% • FT 70.2%
    0.3BPG
  • 5
    Ryan ConwellG • GP 32 • MIN 30.6FG 40.7% • 3P 34.2% • FT 85.3%
    0.2BPG

South Florida

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Wes EnisG • GP 31 • MIN 34.1FG 40.0% • 3P 36.5% • FT 81.4%
    16.8PPG
  • 2
    Izaiyah NelsonF • GP 33 • MIN 27.1FG 56.2% • 3P 14.9% • FT 71.9%
    15.7PPG
  • 3
    Joseph PinionG • GP 33 • MIN 29.9FG 39.3% • 3P 37.9% • FT 78.0%
    14.2PPG
  • 4
    Josh OmojafoG • GP 33 • MIN 27.3FG 46.1% • 3P 30.6% • FT 77.8%
    11.5PPG
  • 5
    CJ BrownG • GP 33 • MIN 26.9FG 37.8% • 3P 24.6% • FT 72.7%
    11.1PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Izaiyah NelsonF • GP 33 • MIN 27.1FG 56.2% • 3P 14.9% • FT 71.9%
    9.6RPG
  • 2
    Josh OmojafoG • GP 33 • MIN 27.3FG 46.1% • 3P 30.6% • FT 77.8%
    5.3RPG
  • 3
    CJ BrownG • GP 33 • MIN 26.9FG 37.8% • 3P 24.6% • FT 72.7%
    3.9RPG
  • 4
    Joseph PinionG • GP 33 • MIN 29.9FG 39.3% • 3P 37.9% • FT 78.0%
    3.8RPG
  • 5
    Wes EnisG • GP 31 • MIN 34.1FG 40.0% • 3P 36.5% • FT 81.4%
    3.6RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    CJ BrownG • GP 33 • MIN 26.9FG 37.8% • 3P 24.6% • FT 72.7%
    4.8APG
  • 2
    Wes EnisG • GP 31 • MIN 34.1FG 40.0% • 3P 36.5% • FT 81.4%
    2.5APG
  • 3
    Joseph PinionG • GP 33 • MIN 29.9FG 39.3% • 3P 37.9% • FT 78.0%
    2.3APG
  • 4
    Adriel NyorhaG • GP 26 • MIN 10.9FG 39.1% • 3P 32.3% • FT 67.9%
    2.0APG
  • 5
    Josh OmojafoG • GP 33 • MIN 27.3FG 46.1% • 3P 30.6% • FT 77.8%
    1.8APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Joseph PinionG • GP 33 • MIN 29.9FG 39.3% • 3P 37.9% • FT 78.0%
    1.7SPG
  • 2
    Izaiyah NelsonF • GP 33 • MIN 27.1FG 56.2% • 3P 14.9% • FT 71.9%
    1.6SPG
  • 3
    Isaiah JonesF • GP 33 • MIN 15.5FG 42.0% • 3P 32.5% • FT 81.8%
    1.2SPG
  • 4
    CJ BrownG • GP 33 • MIN 26.9FG 37.8% • 3P 24.6% • FT 72.7%
    1.1SPG
  • 5
    Wes EnisG • GP 31 • MIN 34.1FG 40.0% • 3P 36.5% • FT 81.4%
    1.0SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Daimion CollinsF • GP 32 • MIN 14.4FG 58.9% • 3P 15.8% • FT 60.0%
    1.5BPG
  • 2
    Izaiyah NelsonF • GP 33 • MIN 27.1FG 56.2% • 3P 14.9% • FT 71.9%
    1.4BPG
  • 3
    CJ BrownG • GP 33 • MIN 26.9FG 37.8% • 3P 24.6% • FT 72.7%
    0.3BPG
  • 4
    Isaiah JonesF • GP 33 • MIN 15.5FG 42.0% • 3P 32.5% • FT 81.8%
    0.3BPG
  • 5
    Joseph PinionG • GP 33 • MIN 29.9FG 39.3% • 3P 37.9% • FT 78.0%
    0.2BPG

Injury Report

Check player availability and injury-related production impact before evaluating the final matchup edge.

Louisville

1 listed
  • Mikel BrownG
    Game Time Decision
    InjuryBack
    Player statsGP 21 • MIN 29.2
    PPG18.2#2
    RPG3.3#6
    APG4.7#1
    SPG1.2#1
    BPG0.1#9

South Florida

2 listed
  • De'Ante GreenF
    Out For Season
    InjuryAchilles
  • Xavier BrownG
    Out For Season
    InjuryUndisclosed
    Player statsGP 3 • MIN 12.3
    PPG2.7#12
    RPG0.7#14
    APG1.7#7
    SPG0.0#13
    BPG0.0#11