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Round of 64 • East Region

Michigan State vs North Dakota State prediction and matchup analysis

Michigan State vs North Dakota State is a Round of 64 game in the East Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The current projected score is Michigan State 80, North Dakota State 66. Compare seed, NET rank, KenPom efficiency, injuries, player leaders, and notable wins to evaluate both teams.

Round of 64East Region

Predictions

Review the projected final score, expected total, risk factors, and historical context for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Michigan State 80–North Dakota State 66
Final scoreMichigan State 80, North Dakota State 66

Explanation

  • Michigan State owns the clear high-end resume edge: the season profile shows the Spartans at No. 11 NET and No. 9 KenPom with a 10-6 Quad 1 record, while North Dakota State sits at No. 114 NET and No. 113 KenPom with no Quad 1 wins.
  • The Spartans have already banked top-end wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Illinois, Purdue, and UCLA, which is a much better indicator for this matchup than North Dakota State's strong 27-7 record against Summit League competition.
  • Michigan State's lead-guard and frontcourt combo is stronger: Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the country in assists per game, Jaxon Kohler averages 12.8 points and 9.1 rebounds, and the Spartans hold season edges in rebounds (39.8 to 36.4) and assists (18.5 to 15.5).
  • The competition gap is real. resume metrics conference summaries list the Big Ten at 16.47 SRS and 11.27 SOS, versus the Summit at -6.21 SRS and -3.37 SOS, which helps explain why North Dakota State's offensive numbers should translate down against this level of athlete and size.

Risk factors

  • North Dakota State's guards can make this uncomfortable. Trevian Carson, Damari Wheeler-Thomas, and Andy Stefonowicz give the Bison multiple ballhandlers, and the team averages 8.3 steals plus 36.5 percent from three.
  • Michigan State's backcourt depth is thinner with Divine Ugochukwu out for the season, and the Spartans did just lose their most recent the season profile-listed game, 88-84 to UCLA on March 13.
  • If Michigan State settles for jumpers instead of turning its size and rebounding edge into paint points and second chances, the margin can shrink into a one-possession game late.

Historical context

  • NCAA history says No. 3 seeds usually survive this line, but not automatically: No. 14 seeds are 23-137 all-time against No. 3 seeds, a 14.38 percent upset rate.
  • North Dakota State has real March credibility for a mid-major program, with NCAA wins over Oklahoma in 2014 and NC Central in the 2019 First Four.
  • Michigan State is also a reminder not to dismiss the upset risk entirely, as the Spartans were knocked out by 14-seed Weber State in 1995.
Total points146 projected

Explanation

  • A blended scoring baseline points to the mid-140s. resume metrics shows Michigan State at 78.8 scored and 67.8 allowed, while Summit League numbers have North Dakota State at 80.7 scored and 69.6 allowed.
  • North Dakota State's pace is respectable at 68.5 possessions per 40 minutes, but Michigan State's better half-court defense, rim size, and rebounding should pull the Bison below their usual offensive efficiency.
  • Michigan State should still score near 80 because North Dakota State has not seen many offenses with this mix of ball-screen creation, size, and second-chance scoring pressure.
  • That produces a favorite-win script around 80-66: high enough to clear a grind, but not fast enough to become a true shootout.

Risk factors

  • If North Dakota State starts hot from three or turns its steals into transition points, the total can climb into the low 150s.
  • If Michigan State's size overwhelms the Bison early and North Dakota State struggles to finish possessions or generate clean threes, the total can fall into the high 130s.
  • Late fouling matters here because a game sitting around a 9- to 12-point margin can tack on several points in the last minute.

Historical context

  • Recent 3-vs-14 NCAA games have covered a wide scoring range, from Texas-Abilene Christian ending 53-52 in 2021 to Kentucky-Oakland ending 80-76 in 2024, so the seed line alone does not dictate the total.
  • North Dakota State's last full first-round NCAA game against an elite seed ended Duke 85, North Dakota State 62 in 2019, which landed on 147 total points and is a reasonable style comp for this projection.
  • Inference from Michigan State's 2025-26 profile: this team wins more often through defense, rebounding, and control than through all-out pace, which supports a mid-140s total rather than something in the 150s.

Team Comparison

Compare seeds, NET rankings, KenPom profiles, records, and team production side by side.

Record Statistics

Statistic
Michigan State
North Dakota State
Record25-727-7
ConferenceBig TenSummit
Road2-38-4
Neutral1-12-1
Home22-317-2
Quad 110-60-0
Quad 24-10-1

Team Statistics

Statistic
Michigan State
North Dakota State
Team PPG78.980.7
Team RPG39.836.4
Team APG18.515.5
Team SPG5.18.3
Team BPG4.12.9
FG%47.1%46.8%
3P%35.9%36.5%
FT%76.3%72.5%

Rankings

Statistic
Michigan State
North Dakota State
Seed#3#14
NET Rank#11#114
KenPom Rank#9#113
KenPom Adj Off Rank#24#124
KenPom Adj Def Rank#13#124

Notable matchups

Use quadrant results and marquee games to compare how each team performed against NCAA Tournament caliber competition.

Michigan State

25-7
Notable matchups

Quad 1

10-6
  • W
    Home • NET #15
    69-6611/08/2025
  • W
    Neutral • NET #28
    83-6611/18/2025
  • W
    Neutral • NET #24
    74-5811/27/2025
  • W
    Home • NET #27
    71-5212/02/2025
  • L
    Home • NET #1
    60-6612/06/2025
  • L
    Away • NET #14
    56-5801/02/2026
  • W
    WashingtonAway • NET #57
    80-6301/17/2026
  • L
    Home • NET #2
    71-8301/30/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #8
    85-82*02/07/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #25
    71-9202/13/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #30
    82-5902/17/2026
  • W
    Home • NET #29
    66-6002/22/2026
  • W
    Away • NET #9
    76-7402/26/2026
  • W
    IndianaAway • NET #41
    77-6403/01/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #2
    80-9003/08/2026
  • L
    Neutral • NET #30
    84-8803/13/2026
Notable matchups

Quad 2

4-1
  • W
    NorthwesternHome • NET #65
    76-6601/08/2026
  • W
    IndianaHome • NET #41
    81-6001/13/2026
  • W
    OregonAway • NET #109
    68-5201/20/2026
  • W
    RutgersAway • NET #134
    88-79*01/27/2026
  • L
    MinnesotaAway • NET #81
    73-7602/04/2026

North Dakota State

27-7
Notable matchups

Quad 1

0-0

No games listed in this quadrant.

Notable matchups

Quad 2

0-1
  • L
    St. Thomas (MN)Away • NET #103
    62-8402/26/2026

Player Leaders

Review the scorers, rebounders, playmakers, and efficiency leaders most likely to shape this matchup.

Michigan State

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Jeremy Fears Jr.G • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 44.5% • 3P 32.0% • FT 89.3%
    15.7PPG
  • 2
    Jaxon KohlerF • GP 32 • MIN 27.8FG 51.0% • 3P 39.4% • FT 87.0%
    12.7PPG
  • 3
    Coen CarrF • GP 32 • MIN 29.0FG 50.6% • 3P 26.9% • FT 62.0%
    11.6PPG
  • 4
    Carson CooperC • GP 32 • MIN 26.4FG 57.2% • 3P 25.0% • FT 77.8%
    10.8PPG
  • 5
    Kur TengG • GP 32 • MIN 17.5FG 38.6% • 3P 38.1% • FT 84.2%
    7.7PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Jaxon KohlerF • GP 32 • MIN 27.8FG 51.0% • 3P 39.4% • FT 87.0%
    9.0RPG
  • 2
    Carson CooperC • GP 32 • MIN 26.4FG 57.2% • 3P 25.0% • FT 77.8%
    7.1RPG
  • 3
    Coen CarrF • GP 32 • MIN 29.0FG 50.6% • 3P 26.9% • FT 62.0%
    5.4RPG
  • 4
    Cam WardF • GP 31 • MIN 15.2FG 57.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 51.0%
    4.3RPG
  • 5
    Jordan ScottF • GP 32 • MIN 20.7FG 40.9% • 3P 36.2% • FT 70.2%
    3.1RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Jeremy Fears Jr.G • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 44.5% • 3P 32.0% • FT 89.3%
    9.2APG
  • 2
    Divine UgochukwuG • GP 22 • MIN 16.1FG 50.6% • 3P 44.2% • FT 55.6%
    1.5APG
  • 3
    Carson CooperC • GP 32 • MIN 26.4FG 57.2% • 3P 25.0% • FT 77.8%
    1.4APG
  • 4
    Jaxon KohlerF • GP 32 • MIN 27.8FG 51.0% • 3P 39.4% • FT 87.0%
    1.3APG
  • 5
    Coen CarrF • GP 32 • MIN 29.0FG 50.6% • 3P 26.9% • FT 62.0%
    1.3APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Jeremy Fears Jr.G • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 44.5% • 3P 32.0% • FT 89.3%
    1.3SPG
  • 2
    Jordan ScottF • GP 32 • MIN 20.7FG 40.9% • 3P 36.2% • FT 70.2%
    0.8SPG
  • 3
    Carson CooperC • GP 32 • MIN 26.4FG 57.2% • 3P 25.0% • FT 77.8%
    0.6SPG
  • 4
    Jaxon KohlerF • GP 32 • MIN 27.8FG 51.0% • 3P 39.4% • FT 87.0%
    0.6SPG
  • 5
    Coen CarrF • GP 32 • MIN 29.0FG 50.6% • 3P 26.9% • FT 62.0%
    0.4SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Carson CooperC • GP 32 • MIN 26.4FG 57.2% • 3P 25.0% • FT 77.8%
    0.9BPG
  • 2
    Coen CarrF • GP 32 • MIN 29.0FG 50.6% • 3P 26.9% • FT 62.0%
    0.8BPG
  • 3
    Jaxon KohlerF • GP 32 • MIN 27.8FG 51.0% • 3P 39.4% • FT 87.0%
    0.7BPG
  • 4
    Jordan ScottF • GP 32 • MIN 20.7FG 40.9% • 3P 36.2% • FT 70.2%
    0.5BPG
  • 5
    Cam WardF • GP 31 • MIN 15.2FG 57.5% • 3P 0.0% • FT 51.0%
    0.5BPG

North Dakota State

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Damari Wheeler-ThomasG • GP 31 • MIN 30.5FG 40.4% • 3P 38.5% • FT 76.2%
    14.4PPG
  • 2
    Trevian CarsonG • GP 34 • MIN 31.5FG 48.1% • 3P 37.9% • FT 80.3%
    12.0PPG
  • 3
    Markhi StricklandG • GP 34 • MIN 24.5FG 59.8% • 3P 0.0% • FT 48.4%
    11.8PPG
  • 4
    Treyson AndersonF • GP 34 • MIN 18.2FG 50.2% • 3P 36.9% • FT 67.6%
    10.4PPG
  • 5
    Noah FeddersenF • GP 34 • MIN 21.2FG 51.2% • 3P 29.3% • FT 80.5%
    9.4PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Trevian CarsonG • GP 34 • MIN 31.5FG 48.1% • 3P 37.9% • FT 80.3%
    6.4RPG
  • 2
    Treyson AndersonF • GP 34 • MIN 18.2FG 50.2% • 3P 36.9% • FT 67.6%
    5.4RPG
  • 3
    Noah FeddersenF • GP 34 • MIN 21.2FG 51.2% • 3P 29.3% • FT 80.5%
    5.1RPG
  • 4
    Damari Wheeler-ThomasG • GP 31 • MIN 30.5FG 40.4% • 3P 38.5% • FT 76.2%
    3.5RPG
  • 5
    Markhi StricklandG • GP 34 • MIN 24.5FG 59.8% • 3P 0.0% • FT 48.4%
    3.5RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Andy StefonowiczG • GP 34 • MIN 32.4FG 41.7% • 3P 38.7% • FT 90.3%
    4.9APG
  • 2
    Damari Wheeler-ThomasG • GP 31 • MIN 30.5FG 40.4% • 3P 38.5% • FT 76.2%
    2.8APG
  • 3
    Trevian CarsonG • GP 34 • MIN 31.5FG 48.1% • 3P 37.9% • FT 80.3%
    2.8APG
  • 4
    Markhi StricklandG • GP 34 • MIN 24.5FG 59.8% • 3P 0.0% • FT 48.4%
    1.3APG
  • 5
    Noah FeddersenF • GP 34 • MIN 21.2FG 51.2% • 3P 29.3% • FT 80.5%
    1.0APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Trevian CarsonG • GP 34 • MIN 31.5FG 48.1% • 3P 37.9% • FT 80.3%
    1.9SPG
  • 2
    Andy StefonowiczG • GP 34 • MIN 32.4FG 41.7% • 3P 38.7% • FT 90.3%
    1.6SPG
  • 3
    Damari Wheeler-ThomasG • GP 31 • MIN 30.5FG 40.4% • 3P 38.5% • FT 76.2%
    1.2SPG
  • 4
    Tay SmithG • GP 34 • MIN 19.9FG 39.8% • 3P 38.8% • FT 76.5%
    1.1SPG
  • 5
    Markhi StricklandG • GP 34 • MIN 24.5FG 59.8% • 3P 0.0% • FT 48.4%
    0.8SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Noah FeddersenF • GP 34 • MIN 21.2FG 51.2% • 3P 29.3% • FT 80.5%
    1.0BPG
  • 2
    Treyson AndersonF • GP 34 • MIN 18.2FG 50.2% • 3P 36.9% • FT 67.6%
    1.0BPG
  • 3
    Trevian CarsonG • GP 34 • MIN 31.5FG 48.1% • 3P 37.9% • FT 80.3%
    0.4BPG
  • 4
    Markhi StricklandG • GP 34 • MIN 24.5FG 59.8% • 3P 0.0% • FT 48.4%
    0.2BPG
  • 5
    Andy StefonowiczG • GP 34 • MIN 32.4FG 41.7% • 3P 38.7% • FT 90.3%
    0.1BPG

Injury Report

Check player availability and injury-related production impact before evaluating the final matchup edge.

Michigan State

2 listed
  • Divine UgochukwuG
    Out For Season
    InjuryFoot
    Player statsGP 22 • MIN 16.1
    PPG5.1#7
    RPG1.5#8
    APG1.5#2
    SPG0.4#6
    BPG0.1#8
  • Kaleb GlennF
    Out For Season
    InjuryKnee

North Dakota State

0 listed

No injuries listed for this team.