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NC State
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Open team pageFirst Four • West Region
NC State vs Texas prediction and matchup analysis
NC State vs Texas is a First Four game in the West Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The current projected score is NC State 82, Texas 78. Compare seed, NET rank, KenPom efficiency, injuries, player leaders, and notable wins to evaluate both teams.
Predictions
Review the projected final score, expected total, risk factors, and historical context for this NCAA Tournament matchup.
NC State 82–Texas 78
Final scoreNC State 82, Texas 78
Explanation
- NC State holds the better NET rank (36 vs. 42), better KenPom overall (34 vs. 37), and the better defensive KenPom rank (86 vs. 112).
- The Wolfpack shoot nearly 39% from three and spread scoring across four players in the 13.7 to 13.9 PPG range, which makes them harder to game-plan against.
- NC State's defensive profile is more reliable. Texas carries a 107.0 adjusted defensive efficiency, well behind its offense.
- Texas forward Lassina Traore, the team's No. 3 rebounder, is a game-time decision, giving NC State a small rebounding edge if he is limited.
- The broader resume metrics also lean NC State, while Texas only holds a slight edge in strength-of-record style measures.
Risk factors
- Texas already beat NC State 102-97 on a neutral floor in November, which is direct evidence that the Longhorn offense can overwhelm the Wolfpack.
- Texas has the higher offensive ceiling. If Dailyn Swain, Tramon Mark, and Jordan Pope all click, the Longhorns can outscore the defensive gap.
- NC State closed the regular season unevenly, which is the main reason this stays below a medium-confidence pick.
Historical context
- No. 11 seeds in the NCAA Tournament have a strong upset track record against No. 6 seeds, and at-large teams sent to Dayton are often better than their seed suggests.
- Both teams are in the same First Four spot, so this should be treated as a tight, high-variance game rather than a mismatch.
Total points160 projected
Explanation
- Both teams average more than 83 points per game, and Texas owns a top-15 KenPom offense, so this profiles as a high-scoring game.
- NC State shoots nearly 39% from three, and Texas has elite guard scoring, so neither team is built to slow things down.
- A March elimination game on a neutral floor should trim the pace and shot volume compared with the first meeting, which reached 199 total points.
- The projection lands at 160 total, well above an average game but still pulled back from the November meeting's extreme pace.
Risk factors
- The first meeting hit 199 points. If neither team adjusts defensively, the total could push well past 160.
- If NC State prioritizes slowing the game down and grinding through half-court sets, the total could drop to the low 150s.
- Foul trouble or an early blowout run could compress possessions and push the total in either direction unpredictably.
Historical context
- First Four games between at-large teams have historically skewed higher-scoring than the overall tournament average.
- The November meeting's 199 total points is an outlier; NCAA tournament pace adjustments typically bring totals down from regular-season extremes.
Team Comparison
Compare seeds, NET rankings, KenPom profiles, records, and team production side by side.
Record Statistics
| Statistic | NC State |  Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 20-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | ACC | SEC |
| Road | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Home | 13-5 | 12-5 |
| Quad 1 | 5-8 | 6-9 |
| Quad 2 | 6-4 | 1-4 |
Team Statistics
| Statistic | NC State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Team PPG | 83.7 | 83.8 |
| Team RPG | 34.5 | 37.7 |
| Team APG | 15.6 | 12.3 |
| Team SPG | 8.1 | 5.8 |
| Team BPG | 3.4 | 2.9 |
| FG% | 46.8% | 48.6% |
| 3P% | 38.8% | 35.3% |
| FT% | 76.8% | 75.2% |
Rankings
| Statistic | NC State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Seed | #11 | #11 |
| NET Rank | #36 | #42 |
| KenPom Rank | #34 | #37 |
| KenPom Adj Off Rank | #20 | #13 |
| KenPom Adj Def Rank | #86 | #112 |
Notable matchups
Use quadrant results and marquee games to compare how each team performed against NCAA Tournament caliber competition.
NC State
Notable matchups
5-8Quad 1
- L97-10211/26/2025
- L
Auburn73-8312/03/2025 - L76-77*12/13/2025
- L61-7601/03/2026
- W
Florida St.113-6901/10/2026 - W80-76*01/20/2026
- W
Wake Forest96-7801/31/2026 - W84-8302/03/2026
- L77-11802/09/2026
- W82-5802/17/2026
- L61-9002/24/2026
- L64-9303/02/2026
- L74-8103/12/2026
Notable matchups
6-4Quad 2
- W85-7911/17/2025
- LSeton Hall74-8511/24/2025
- W
Boise St.81-7011/25/2025 - W
Ole Miss76-6212/21/2025 - WWake Forest70-5712/31/2025
- W
Pittsburgh81-7201/24/2026 - W
Virginia Tech82-7302/07/2026 - L76-7702/14/2026
- L
Notre Dame90-96*02/28/2026 - L
Stanford84-8503/07/2026
Texas
Notable matchups
6-9Quad 1
- L60-7511/04/2025
- W102-9711/26/2025
- L69-8812/03/2025
- L63-7112/12/2025
- L71-8501/06/2026
- W92-8801/10/2026
- W80-6401/14/2026
- L80-8501/21/2026
- LAuburn82-8801/28/2026
- W
Oklahoma79-6901/31/2026 - W85-6802/14/2026
- L80-9102/21/2026
- L71-8402/25/2026
- W76-7002/28/2026
- L85-10503/04/2026
Notable matchups
1-4Quad 2
- L
Arizona St.86-8711/24/2025 - L70-7401/17/2026
- W87-6701/24/2026
- LOklahoma85-88*03/07/2026
- LOle Miss66-7603/11/2026
Player Leaders
Review the scorers, rebounders, playmakers, and efficiency leaders most likely to shape this matchup.
NC State
Points leadersPPG
- 1Paul McNeil Jr.G • GP 33 • MIN 28.5FG 43.5% • 3P 42.9% • FT 82.4%13.9PPG
- 2Quadir CopelandG • GP 33 • MIN 28.6FG 49.7% • 3P 39.7% • FT 77.7%13.9PPG
- 3Ven-Allen LubinF • GP 33 • MIN 28.3FG 67.6% • 3P 27.3% • FT 73.9%13.9PPG
- 4Darrion WilliamsF • GP 32 • MIN 29.8FG 41.3% • 3P 40.1% • FT 76.6%13.8PPG
- 5Tre HollomanG • GP 31 • MIN 25.6FG 42.5% • 3P 40.8% • FT 81.2%9.3PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
- 1Ven-Allen LubinF • GP 33 • MIN 28.3FG 67.6% • 3P 27.3% • FT 73.9%7.2RPG
- 2Darrion WilliamsF • GP 32 • MIN 29.8FG 41.3% • 3P 40.1% • FT 76.6%4.6RPG
- 3Paul McNeil Jr.G • GP 33 • MIN 28.5FG 43.5% • 3P 42.9% • FT 82.4%3.6RPG
- 4Quadir CopelandG • GP 33 • MIN 28.6FG 49.7% • 3P 39.7% • FT 77.7%3.5RPG
- 5Matt AbleG • GP 33 • MIN 21.6FG 41.7% • 3P 35.5% • FT 82.0%3.5RPG
Assists leadersAPG
- 1Quadir CopelandG • GP 33 • MIN 28.6FG 49.7% • 3P 39.7% • FT 77.7%6.6APG
- 2Darrion WilliamsF • GP 32 • MIN 29.8FG 41.3% • 3P 40.1% • FT 76.6%2.8APG
- 3Tre HollomanG • GP 31 • MIN 25.6FG 42.5% • 3P 40.8% • FT 81.2%2.0APG
- 4Alyn BreedG • GP 21 • MIN 14.8FG 40.5% • 3P 34.5% • FT 89.3%1.3APG
- 5Matt AbleG • GP 33 • MIN 21.6FG 41.7% • 3P 35.5% • FT 82.0%1.0APG
Steals leadersSPG
- 1Quadir CopelandG • GP 33 • MIN 28.6FG 49.7% • 3P 39.7% • FT 77.7%1.7SPG
- 2Matt AbleG • GP 33 • MIN 21.6FG 41.7% • 3P 35.5% • FT 82.0%1.2SPG
- 3Darrion WilliamsF • GP 32 • MIN 29.8FG 41.3% • 3P 40.1% • FT 76.6%1.1SPG
- 4Tre HollomanG • GP 31 • MIN 25.6FG 42.5% • 3P 40.8% • FT 81.2%0.9SPG
- 5Terrance ArceneauxG • GP 29 • MIN 16.1FG 41.4% • 3P 32.6% • FT 77.3%0.9SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
- 1Ven-Allen LubinF • GP 33 • MIN 28.3FG 67.6% • 3P 27.3% • FT 73.9%0.9BPG
- 2Scottie EbubeC • GP 16 • MIN 4.2FG 88.9% • 3P 0.0% • FT 23.1%0.5BPG
- 3Musa SagniaF • GP 33 • MIN 12.5FG 59.6% • 3P 25.0% • FT 45.5%0.5BPG
- 4Paul McNeil Jr.G • GP 33 • MIN 28.5FG 43.5% • 3P 42.9% • FT 82.4%0.4BPG
- 5Terrance ArceneauxG • GP 29 • MIN 16.1FG 41.4% • 3P 32.6% • FT 77.3%0.4BPG
Texas
Points leadersPPG
- 1Dailyn SwainG • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 55.1% • 3P 34.5% • FT 81.6%17.8PPG
- 2Matas VokietaitisC • GP 32 • MIN 25.8FG 63.1% • 3P 0.0% • FT 69.6%15.5PPG
- 3Tramon MarkG • GP 32 • MIN 27.7FG 47.0% • 3P 32.3% • FT 74.7%13.5PPG
- 4Jordan PopeG • GP 32 • MIN 28.5FG 40.5% • 3P 37.5% • FT 84.0%13.3PPG
- 5Camden HeideF • GP 31 • MIN 23.1FG 50.0% • 3P 45.9% • FT 70.6%6.2PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
- 1Dailyn SwainG • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 55.1% • 3P 34.5% • FT 81.6%7.6RPG
- 2Matas VokietaitisC • GP 32 • MIN 25.8FG 63.1% • 3P 0.0% • FT 69.6%6.8RPG
- 3Lassina TraoreF • GP 23 • MIN 15.6FG 44.9% • 3P 0.0% • FT 66.0%5.1RPG
- 4Chendall WeaverG • GP 32 • MIN 21.1FG 42.7% • 3P 23.3% • FT 71.0%4.1RPG
- 5Tramon MarkG • GP 32 • MIN 27.7FG 47.0% • 3P 32.3% • FT 74.7%3.4RPG
Assists leadersAPG
- 1Dailyn SwainG • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 55.1% • 3P 34.5% • FT 81.6%3.4APG
- 2Jordan PopeG • GP 32 • MIN 28.5FG 40.5% • 3P 37.5% • FT 84.0%1.9APG
- 3Tramon MarkG • GP 32 • MIN 27.7FG 47.0% • 3P 32.3% • FT 74.7%1.9APG
- 4Simeon WilcherG • GP 32 • MIN 19.7FG 37.7% • 3P 34.8% • FT 91.7%1.8APG
- 5Chendall WeaverG • GP 32 • MIN 21.1FG 42.7% • 3P 23.3% • FT 71.0%1.2APG
Steals leadersSPG
- 1Dailyn SwainG • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 55.1% • 3P 34.5% • FT 81.6%1.7SPG
- 2Tramon MarkG • GP 32 • MIN 27.7FG 47.0% • 3P 32.3% • FT 74.7%0.9SPG
- 3Chendall WeaverG • GP 32 • MIN 21.1FG 42.7% • 3P 23.3% • FT 71.0%0.8SPG
- 4Simeon WilcherG • GP 32 • MIN 19.7FG 37.7% • 3P 34.8% • FT 91.7%0.7SPG
- 5Lassina TraoreF • GP 23 • MIN 15.6FG 44.9% • 3P 0.0% • FT 66.0%0.5SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
- 1Matas VokietaitisC • GP 32 • MIN 25.8FG 63.1% • 3P 0.0% • FT 69.6%0.9BPG
- 2Nic CodieF • GP 20 • MIN 14.9FG 47.8% • 3P 8.3% • FT 60.0%0.6BPG
- 3Tramon MarkG • GP 32 • MIN 27.7FG 47.0% • 3P 32.3% • FT 74.7%0.4BPG
- 4Simeon WilcherG • GP 32 • MIN 19.7FG 37.7% • 3P 34.8% • FT 91.7%0.3BPG
- 5Dailyn SwainG • GP 32 • MIN 32.2FG 55.1% • 3P 34.5% • FT 81.6%0.3BPG
Injury Report
Check player availability and injury-related production impact before evaluating the final matchup edge.
NC State
- Colt LangdonFOutPlayer statsGP 6 • MIN 2.8PPG0.3#13RPG0.2#13APG0.0#13SPG0.0#12BPG0.0#12
- Alyn BreedGGame Time DecisionPlayer statsGP 21 • MIN 14.8PPG4.5#8RPG1.9#9APG1.3#4SPG0.7#6BPG0.0#11
Texas
- Lassina TraoreFGame Time DecisionPlayer statsGP 23 • MIN 15.6PPG3.4#9RPG5.1#3APG0.6#9SPG0.5#5BPG0.3#6