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Round of 64 • West Region

Villanova vs Utah State prediction and matchup analysis

Villanova vs Utah State is a Round of 64 game in the West Region of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The current projected score is Utah State 76, Villanova 72. Compare seed, NET rank, KenPom efficiency, injuries, player leaders, and notable wins to evaluate both teams.

Round of 64West Region

Predictions

Review the projected final score, expected total, risk factors, and historical context for this NCAA Tournament matchup.

Utah State 76–Villanova 72
Final scoreUtah State 76, Villanova 72

Explanation

  • Utah State brings the slightly stronger full-season profile: 28-6 record, NET 26, KenPom 30, and a 4-4 Quad 1 mark. Villanova is 24-8, NET 35, KenPom 33, and 2-6 in Quad 1.
  • The Aggies have the steadier top-end offense. MJ Collins Jr. Mason Falslev combine for roughly 33-34 points per game, and Utah State is scoring about 83 points per game while shooting 50.1% from the field.
  • Villanova has enough guard play to keep this tight, especially with Tyler Perkins, Acaden Lewis, Devin Askew, and Duke Brennan, but the loss of Matt Hodge removes 9.2 points per game, frontcourt size, and a stretch-four option.
  • Utah State's balance, assist rate, and cleaner resume make it easier to trust in a one-possession game, while Villanova's strong 3-point defense and low-turnover offense keep the margin small.
  • Utah State also enters in better form, with a Mountain West regular-season title and stronger recent high-end results, while Villanova closed with a damaging rebounding collapse against Georgetown in the Big East tournament.

Risk factors

  • Villanova can absolutely flip this if Perkins, Lewis, and Askew win the 3-point battle and Brennan controls the glass.
  • Utah State has shown some defensive volatility away from Logan, so a cold offensive start or foul trouble in the backcourt could put it behind.
  • If Villanova successfully drags the game into a slower half-court possession battle, the margin could come down to the final shot.

Historical context

  • The NCAA's 8-vs-9 line is basically a coin flip. NCAA notes No. 9 seeds hold an 83-77 edge since 1985, and its year-by-year table also shows how little separation there has been in the last decade-plus.
  • Utah State already won this exact seed-line game in 2024, beating No. 9 seed TCU 88-72 in the first round.
  • Villanova has deeper March pedigree than most 8-seeds, but this specific roster is still a first-year Kevin Willard group adjusting to a major late-season injury.
Total points148 projected

Explanation

  • A simple offense-defense blend of the two teams' season scoring profiles points to the low 150s, but neutral-court tournament play usually trims a few possessions and a few easy points.
  • Utah State is the main driver upward: 83.0 points per game, 50.1% shooting, 17.7 assists, and two reliable lead guards in Collins and Falslev.
  • Villanova pulls the number back down with 70.5 points allowed per game, strong perimeter defense, and a lower-turnover half-court style.
  • Hodge's absence slightly lowers Villanova's frontcourt scoring and lineup flexibility, which is why the projection settles in the high 140s instead of the low 150s.
  • The most likely script is a close game that gets played mostly in the half court late, with enough shot-making to stay above a true grinder.

Risk factors

  • If Utah State forces live-ball turnovers and gets into transition, this total can climb into the 150s quickly.
  • If Villanova controls pace and makes Utah State work through long half-court possessions, the combined score can finish in the low 140s.
  • Overtime is the cleanest path to blowing past this projection.

Historical context

  • Recent 8-vs-9 NCAA games have covered a wide range, from defensive games like UConn-Oklahoma 67-59 in 2025 to faster ones like Utah State-TCU 88-72 in 2024.
  • Utah State's recent high-level games have swung between grindy and high-scoring, which makes a mid-to-high 140s projection a reasonable middle ground.
  • Villanova's recent leverage games have also varied sharply by matchup, reinforcing a median projection instead of an extreme over or extreme under.

Team Comparison

Compare seeds, NET rankings, KenPom profiles, records, and team production side by side.

Record Statistics

Statistic
Villanova
Utah State
Record24-828-6
ConferenceBig EastMountain West
Road6-28-3
Neutral3-13-1
Home15-517-2
Quad 12-64-4
Quad 28-19-1

Team Statistics

Statistic
Villanova
Utah State
Team PPG77.282.5
Team RPG34.534.6
Team APG15.517.6
Team SPG7.48.8
Team BPG2.22.9
FG%45.7%49.8%
3P%35.3%35.8%
FT%69.4%70.7%

Rankings

Statistic
Villanova
Utah State
Seed#8#9
NET Rank#35#26
KenPom Rank#33#30
KenPom Adj Off Rank#41#28
KenPom Adj Def Rank#35#45

Notable matchups

Use quadrant results and marquee games to compare how each team performed against NCAA Tournament caliber competition.

Villanova

24-8
Notable matchups

Quad 1

2-6
  • L
    Neutral • NET #23
    66-7111/03/2025
  • L
    Away • NET #2
    61-8912/09/2025
  • W
    Neutral • NET #25
    76-66*12/19/2025
  • W
    Seton HallAway • NET #53
    64-5612/23/2025
  • L
    Home • NET #16
    79-8601/17/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #10
    67-75*01/24/2026
  • L
    Home • NET #10
    63-7302/21/2026
  • L
    Away • NET #16
    57-8902/28/2026
Notable matchups

Quad 2

8-1
  • W
    ButlerAway • NET #84
    85-6701/03/2026
  • W
    MarquetteAway • NET #93
    76-7301/10/2026
  • W
    ProvidenceAway • NET #80
    88-8201/13/2026
  • W
    Seton HallHome • NET #53
    72-6002/04/2026
  • W
    GeorgetownAway • NET #90
    80-7302/07/2026
  • W
    CreightonAway • NET #83
    80-6902/14/2026
  • W
    XavierAway • NET #97
    92-89*02/17/2026
  • W
    DePaulAway • NET #102
    76-5703/04/2026
  • L
    GeorgetownNeutral • NET #90
    64-7803/12/2026

Utah State

28-6
Notable matchups

Quad 1

4-4
  • W
    Neutral • NET #43
    80-7711/07/2025
  • L
    Away • NET #45
    61-7412/04/2025
  • W
    Boise St.Away • NET #60
    93-6801/10/2026
  • L
    Grand CanyonAway • NET #71
    74-8401/17/2026
  • W
    New MexicoAway • NET #46
    86-6602/04/2026
  • L
    NevadaAway • NET #70
    77-8002/21/2026
  • L
    San Diego St.Away • NET #47
    72-8902/25/2026
  • W
    San Diego St.Neutral • NET #47
    73-6203/14/2026
Notable matchups

Quad 2

9-1
  • W
    Illinois St.Neutral • NET #95
    83-7812/13/2025
  • W
    NevadaHome • NET #70
    71-6201/14/2026
  • W
    Colorado St.Away • NET #87
    65-6101/23/2026
  • W
    San Diego St.Home • NET #47
    71-6601/31/2026
  • W
    WyomingAway • NET #99
    85-8302/07/2026
  • W
    Boise St.Home • NET #60
    75-5602/18/2026
  • W
    Grand CanyonHome • NET #71
    74-6902/28/2026
  • L
    UNLVAway • NET #111
    65-9203/03/2026
  • W
    New MexicoHome • NET #46
    94-9003/07/2026
  • W
    NevadaNeutral • NET #70
    79-6603/13/2026

Player Leaders

Review the scorers, rebounders, playmakers, and efficiency leaders most likely to shape this matchup.

Villanova

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    Tyler PerkinsG • GP 32 • MIN 29.6FG 44.2% • 3P 36.6% • FT 73.9%
    13.7PPG
  • 2
    Duke BrennanF • GP 31 • MIN 30.9FG 65.7% • 3P 0.0% • FT 62.4%
    12.4PPG
  • 3
    Acaden LewisG • GP 32 • MIN 30.3FG 46.4% • 3P 27.1% • FT 58.3%
    12.3PPG
  • 4
    Bryce LindsayG • GP 32 • MIN 28.3FG 37.6% • 3P 34.6% • FT 78.8%
    11.9PPG
  • 5
    Devin AskewG • GP 32 • MIN 23.1FG 40.3% • 3P 40.8% • FT 87.2%
    10.0PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Duke BrennanF • GP 31 • MIN 30.9FG 65.7% • 3P 0.0% • FT 62.4%
    10.3RPG
  • 2
    Tyler PerkinsG • GP 32 • MIN 29.6FG 44.2% • 3P 36.6% • FT 73.9%
    5.4RPG
  • 3
    Matt HodgeF • GP 29 • MIN 27.6FG 45.2% • 3P 36.8% • FT 65.2%
    3.6RPG
  • 4
    Acaden LewisG • GP 32 • MIN 30.3FG 46.4% • 3P 27.1% • FT 58.3%
    3.1RPG
  • 5
    Tafara GapareF • GP 9 • MIN 16.3FG 25.9% • 3P 21.4% • FT 81.8%
    2.9RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Acaden LewisG • GP 32 • MIN 30.3FG 46.4% • 3P 27.1% • FT 58.3%
    5.3APG
  • 2
    Devin AskewG • GP 32 • MIN 23.1FG 40.3% • 3P 40.8% • FT 87.2%
    2.1APG
  • 3
    Bryce LindsayG • GP 32 • MIN 28.3FG 37.6% • 3P 34.6% • FT 78.8%
    2.0APG
  • 4
    Duke BrennanF • GP 31 • MIN 30.9FG 65.7% • 3P 0.0% • FT 62.4%
    2.0APG
  • 5
    Tyler PerkinsG • GP 32 • MIN 29.6FG 44.2% • 3P 36.6% • FT 73.9%
    1.6APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Acaden LewisG • GP 32 • MIN 30.3FG 46.4% • 3P 27.1% • FT 58.3%
    1.9SPG
  • 2
    Tyler PerkinsG • GP 32 • MIN 29.6FG 44.2% • 3P 36.6% • FT 73.9%
    1.2SPG
  • 3
    Devin AskewG • GP 32 • MIN 23.1FG 40.3% • 3P 40.8% • FT 87.2%
    1.1SPG
  • 4
    Duke BrennanF • GP 31 • MIN 30.9FG 65.7% • 3P 0.0% • FT 62.4%
    0.8SPG
  • 5
    Bryce LindsayG • GP 32 • MIN 28.3FG 37.6% • 3P 34.6% • FT 78.8%
    0.7SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Tafara GapareF • GP 9 • MIN 16.3FG 25.9% • 3P 21.4% • FT 81.8%
    0.8BPG
  • 2
    Matt HodgeF • GP 29 • MIN 27.6FG 45.2% • 3P 36.8% • FT 65.2%
    0.6BPG
  • 3
    Duke BrennanF • GP 31 • MIN 30.9FG 65.7% • 3P 0.0% • FT 62.4%
    0.5BPG
  • 4
    Braden PierceC • GP 29 • MIN 6.5FG 66.7% • 3P 0.0% • FT 60.0%
    0.4BPG
  • 5
    Tyler PerkinsG • GP 32 • MIN 29.6FG 44.2% • 3P 36.6% • FT 73.9%
    0.3BPG

Utah State

Points leadersPPG
  • 1
    MJ Collins Jr.G • GP 34 • MIN 30.4FG 49.1% • 3P 36.6% • FT 82.4%
    17.6PPG
  • 2
    Mason FalslevG • GP 34 • MIN 31.9FG 52.0% • 3P 41.1% • FT 76.3%
    16.1PPG
  • 3
    Karson TemplinF • GP 34 • MIN 18.7FG 51.7% • 3P 35.1% • FT 64.9%
    9.1PPG
  • 4
    Drake AllenG • GP 33 • MIN 25.2FG 45.8% • 3P 31.6% • FT 61.8%
    7.7PPG
  • 5
    Kolby KingG • GP 34 • MIN 19.7FG 47.6% • 3P 39.5% • FT 75.7%
    7.6PPG
Rebounds leadersRPG
  • 1
    Mason FalslevG • GP 34 • MIN 31.9FG 52.0% • 3P 41.1% • FT 76.3%
    5.8RPG
  • 2
    Garry ClarkF • GP 34 • MIN 16.5FG 70.6% • 3P 16.7% • FT 52.1%
    4.3RPG
  • 3
    Karson TemplinF • GP 34 • MIN 18.7FG 51.7% • 3P 35.1% • FT 64.9%
    4.2RPG
  • 4
    Kolby KingG • GP 34 • MIN 19.7FG 47.6% • 3P 39.5% • FT 75.7%
    3.4RPG
  • 5
    Drake AllenG • GP 33 • MIN 25.2FG 45.8% • 3P 31.6% • FT 61.8%
    3.0RPG
Assists leadersAPG
  • 1
    Drake AllenG • GP 33 • MIN 25.2FG 45.8% • 3P 31.6% • FT 61.8%
    4.7APG
  • 2
    Elijah PerrymanG • GP 34 • MIN 14.2FG 43.8% • 3P 30.2% • FT 80.0%
    3.1APG
  • 3
    Mason FalslevG • GP 34 • MIN 31.9FG 52.0% • 3P 41.1% • FT 76.3%
    3.1APG
  • 4
    MJ Collins Jr.G • GP 34 • MIN 30.4FG 49.1% • 3P 36.6% • FT 82.4%
    1.6APG
  • 5
    Kolby KingG • GP 34 • MIN 19.7FG 47.6% • 3P 39.5% • FT 75.7%
    1.5APG
Steals leadersSPG
  • 1
    Mason FalslevG • GP 34 • MIN 31.9FG 52.0% • 3P 41.1% • FT 76.3%
    2.0SPG
  • 2
    Drake AllenG • GP 33 • MIN 25.2FG 45.8% • 3P 31.6% • FT 61.8%
    2.0SPG
  • 3
    MJ Collins Jr.G • GP 34 • MIN 30.4FG 49.1% • 3P 36.6% • FT 82.4%
    0.9SPG
  • 4
    Karson TemplinF • GP 34 • MIN 18.7FG 51.7% • 3P 35.1% • FT 64.9%
    0.8SPG
  • 5
    Adlan ElaminF • GP 33 • MIN 19.0FG 44.6% • 3P 32.2% • FT 78.9%
    0.8SPG
Blocks leadersBPG
  • 1
    Karson TemplinF • GP 34 • MIN 18.7FG 51.7% • 3P 35.1% • FT 64.9%
    0.9BPG
  • 2
    Drake AllenG • GP 33 • MIN 25.2FG 45.8% • 3P 31.6% • FT 61.8%
    0.4BPG
  • 3
    Garry ClarkF • GP 34 • MIN 16.5FG 70.6% • 3P 16.7% • FT 52.1%
    0.4BPG
  • 4
    Adlan ElaminF • GP 33 • MIN 19.0FG 44.6% • 3P 32.2% • FT 78.9%
    0.4BPG
  • 5
    Mason FalslevG • GP 34 • MIN 31.9FG 52.0% • 3P 41.1% • FT 76.3%
    0.3BPG

Injury Report

Check player availability and injury-related production impact before evaluating the final matchup edge.

Villanova

1 listed
  • Matthew HodgeF
    Out For Season
    InjuryKnee

Utah State

0 listed

No injuries listed for this team.